612
FXUS65 KPIH 180814
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
114 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND AROUND ISLAND PARK
SOUTH THROUGH THE BIG HOLES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS THAT COULD OCCUR
WOULD ON THE SPINE OF THE SAWTOOTHS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND
ISLAND PARK, AND THE STILL IS ONLY AN INCH OR 2 AT BEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY BUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
MINIMALIZED. GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, EASTERN HIGHLANDS, PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND BENCH AREAS FROM BURLEY TO REXBURG. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
THROUGH LATE EVENING, BUT WE QUICKLY DRY OUT...AT LEAST RAIN OR
SNOW WISE AFTER THAT. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH WITH SOME STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY, AND AGAIN
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS. KEYES
LONG TERM
FRI THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT
PERIODS HERE. FRI THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE FOG AND
STRATUS AND HOW DENSE THE FOG COULD GET UNDER RATHER STAGNANT
CONDITIONS. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG STORM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE MAIN LOW DOES NOT
MOVE THROUGH IDAHO UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
MAINLY EJECT SHORTWAVES INTO THE GEM STATE UNTIL THEN. THUS THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES MAKES THE FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN. AS IT
STANDS NOW, THE FIRST NIGHT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS. THE STORM WILL LET UP
SOME FOR SUN, THEN A SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
STARTING LATE SUN NIGHT, FINISHING UP MON EVENING. THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE CHRISTMAS EVE (TUE) INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING,
AS THIS INCLUDES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. ONLY 10-15
PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE, SO IT
LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY AND TRAVELERS PLANNING TRAVEL THROUGH SOUTHERN
IDAHO SHOULD KEEP UP ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WITH LITTLE LET UP TO SOUTHWESTERLY AIR FLOW AND CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACTUALLY QUITE MILD FOR THE TIME OF YEAR, 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS.
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO GET THERE, AFTER THE
CLEAR SKY PERIOD. THIS MEANS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN FOR HIGHS, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
WIND WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS, BUT THE SUN FEATURE COULD
SPIKE WIND UP TO ADVISORY LEVEL, THEN THE CONTINUOUS NATURE OF THE
STORMS FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD MEANS MODERATE TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
MESSICK
AVIATION
HE SNOW STORM HAS PASSED, AND THE
CLOUDS SHOULD LEAVE THE REGION BY 18/18Z. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS
WITH KDIJ, WHERE IT COULD LINGER LONGER. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THERE IS A THREAT OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN, MOSTLY KPIH (STRATUS) AND KIDA (FOG OR STRATUS). KDIJ MAY
ALSO HAVE PROBLEMS. THE MAIN IDEA MAKING THIS FORECAST LESS
CONFIDENT FOR TONIGHT IS THAT THE WIND IS ELEVATED, SO FOG IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE DENSE, BUT THE STRATUS CAN STILL HAMPER AIRDROME
OPERATIONS. KSUN AND KBYI SHOULD HAVE EXCELLENT CIG AND VSBY
CONDITIONS.
MESSICK
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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