033
FXUS65 KPIH 190841
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
141 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS.
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE STANLEY BASIN AND ACROSS
THE UPPER END OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND TOWARD THE MONTANA BORDER.
TOMORROW MORNING, THE RISK LOOKS POTENTIALLY SPREAD MORE SOUTH AND
WEST TOWARD THE REST OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ESPECIALLY WHERE INVERSIONS AND/OR LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO MIX OUT.
KEYES
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
FOLLOWING A QUIET AND DRY END TO THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, THAT RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD REMAINS ON
TRACK TO SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
HELP REINTRODUCE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS MULTIPLE TROUGHS
BUILD IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS SERIES OF AT LEAST FOUR SYSTEMS
FOLLOWING ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY
SHIFT IN THE JET STREAM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO BUILD IN BETWEEN
EACH WAVE OF MOISTURE WITH THE WETTER AND WINDIER OF THE FOUR
SYSTEMS STILL FOCUSING IN ON THE LAST TWO AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS DAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS
GIVEN THE DEEPER, SLOWER MOVING TROUGH SIGNALS ON THE GEFS/EPS AND
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND CLOSER TIES TO ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE WHILE
THE OTHER TROUGHS REMAIN SHALLOWER IN NATURE WITH LESSER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE PACIFIC AND FASTER STORM MOTION.
GIVEN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN THE 30S/40S FOR HIGHS AND BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT, BEST
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR LOWEST ELEVATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO OUR OVERNIGHT PERIODS OR IN HEAVIER, MORE ORGANIZED
BANDS WITH ALL SNOW FAVORED IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING
AND DETAILS OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM WILL COME INTO FOCUS OVER THE
COMING DAYS, PRELIMINARY PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THAT 0.25-1.00" RANGE IN THE
VALLEYS AND 1.00-2.00" RANGE IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER A FIVE DAY PERIOD
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STAY TUNED AS WE TRACK THIS RETURN TO
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE DECEMBER AND THINK SNOW!
MACKAY
AVIATION
PREDOMINANT VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER SE IDAHO. PATCHY
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ERN HIGHLANDS AROUND KIDA
AND KDIJ AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT KPIH AND KBYI. DOWNVALLEY WINDS
AT KSUN ARE FAVORED TO KEEP ANY LOW CLOUDS AT BAY. MOISTURE WORKING
OVERTOP THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FL200 TO FL250 CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MACKAY
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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