907
FXUS65 KPIH 192039
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
139 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
SHORT TERM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY AM HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THIS COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IT WAS THIS
MORNING SO HAVE PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, MAGIC VALLEY, ARCO DESERT AND UP
TOWARDS THE ISLAND PARK REGION. ANOTHER FREEZING FOG MAY BE NEEDED
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS TRANSPIRES BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY
ISSUANCE AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE, THINGS WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL. ANY PROLONGED
FOG/STRATUS COULD CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS
HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY, MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH KIDA STILL AT 24 COMPARED
TO KPIH AND KBYI AT 37 AND 40, RESPECTIVELY. MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORECAST TO BRING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NOT ONCE, NOT TWICE, BUT FIVE TIMES IN THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, AGAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE LATTER THREE SYSTEMS (STARTING CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY) CONTINUE TO LOOK THE WETTEST, WHILE THE EARLIER
SYSTEMS AREN'T FORECAST TO EXCEED 3-5 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. IN FACT, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ONLY
EXCEEDS 20% IN THE SAWTOOTHS. GIVEN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE 30S/40S FOR HIGHS AND
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT, BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
OUR LOWEST ELEVATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR OVERNIGHT PERIODS
OR IN HEAVIER, MORE ORGANIZED BANDS.
AVIATION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADLY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW-
IMPACT VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AT SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO WORRY ABOUT LOCALIZED FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. KIDA DID GET SOCKED IN THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS DESPITE MIXED SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE AHEAD OF TIME. WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND JUST A TOUCH DRIER EACH DAY, BUT GIVEN
HOW THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS HAVE PLAYED OUT AS WELL AS FRESH
SNOWPACK, AND SIGNALS IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR ISSUES AGAIN
TONIGHT, KIDA LOOKS LIKE A CANDIDATE FOR BOTH FOG AND STRATUS ONCE
AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE STARTED LEANING IN WITH 4 SM BR VCFG
SCT002 DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING
IT INTO THE TERMINAL FROM THE NORTH AND WEST, BUT THERE IS A
30-40% CHANCE THE TERMINAL COULD SOCK IN AGAIN AT 1/2 SM OVC002
FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS IN THE 10-18Z/3-11AM WINDOW. FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE,
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY IMPACTS WITH EXCELLENT
CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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