565
FXUS65 KPIH 212101
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
201 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNRISE. ONLY IN THE RANGE
OF A HALF INCH TO UP TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED. A SECOND WAVE WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6 THOUSAND FEET TO 6500 FEET. SO ALL RAIN IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED
BUT COULD SEE SOME SNOW COVERED ROADS AT TIMES IN HIGH ELEVATIONS
IN THOSE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY 20S AND 30S WITH
SOME TEENS IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS
TO 40S VALLEYS AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 20S MOUNTAINS AND 30S
VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
GK
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
BRINGING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO EAST IDAHO. MAIN PERIODS OF
IMPACT APPEAR TO BE MONDAY, CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT/EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY,
THURSDAY, AND THEN A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FOR THE WEEKEND. EACH SYSTEM IS
PROGRESSIVE, NOT VERY AMPLIFIED, AND NOT EXTREMELY IMPACTFUL AS FAR
AS QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS, EVEN FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY FLOORS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
TEMPERATURES, AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. THUS LEADING TO EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AS FAR AS
HAVING A WHITE CHRISTMAS, THE NBM FAVORS LESS THAN AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION FOR THAT PARTICULAR SYSTEM FOR ANY LOCATION UNDER
APPROXIMATELY 6500 FEET ELEVATION. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL OF THOSE AMOUNTS CREEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER, SO THERE IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY, BUT AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY
IN THE DETAILS. DMH
AVIATION
SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS IDAHO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW -SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-DAY, ALONG WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT -SN FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL, BUT TRIED
TO PAINT VCSH WHERE BEST CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR. WHERE -SN IS ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND, CIGS COULD FALL AS LOW AS IFR. EAST IDAHO SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH SOME CIG IMPROVEMENT AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING, BUT EXPECT MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT
ROUND OF -SN ARRIVING. DMH
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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