653
FXUS65 KPIH 170820
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
120 AM MST FRI JAN 17 2025
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF DIPPING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING WITH IT SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
INTO THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE
SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT. GIVEN
ITS ORIGINS IN CANADA, THERE'S NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT BUT
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY FOCUS AREA FOR THIS BASED
OFF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND INTO THE SOUTH HILLS. STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CONVERGENCE LIKE FEATURE BETWEEN
POCATELLO AND THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GETTING MUCH COLDER AND AS SUCH, SNOW RATIOS WILL INCREASE
ALLOWING FOR MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH VERY
LITTLE QPF. STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN IF, OR WHERE, THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSPIRE BUT IT'LL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT, 1-3
INCHES IN ANY AREAS WITH POPULATION, NO WINTER HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED ALTHOUGH SOME OF OUR HIGHER PEAKS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
WILL LIKELY SEE TOTALS ABOVE 3 INCHES.
AFTER THIS FRONT, THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS WILL BE THE COLD,
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL MOVE IN BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE COLDEST AIR WE'VE
SEEN THUS FAR THIS WINTER MOVING IN AND BRINGING BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES TO EASTERN IDAHO. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S REGIONWIDE WITH THE COLDEST STRETCH
LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MONDAY MORNING WILL
BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY WHERE THEY COULD STAY
ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF 0 BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.....SO STILL
REALLY COLD! THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN, CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
EAST/SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. ONCE THE LIGHT, BUT NON-ZERO, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT, FEELS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -15 TO -30
RANGE FROM NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SO SOME EXTREME COLD
HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DAYS AHEAD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS AS WELL
WITH ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUE AM BEFORE
THINGS VERY SLOWLY START TO MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL BUT IT
DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
NEXT WEEK SO DESPITE THE COLD, WE WON'T HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANY
NEW SNOW ASIDE FROM MAYBE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND ISLAND PARK
FROM ABOUT MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE TIME WE GET TO NEXT FRIDAY. MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION
A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE FOR
PARTS OF THE DAY AT KIDA, KDIJ, KPIH AND KBYI WITH SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS, PERHAPS BACK TO VFR, POSSIBLE BY LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO BKN
CIGS IN THE 2-4KFT RANGE OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH COULD RESULT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS SO CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN DESIRED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING AT
KBYI WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BREEZIEST LOCATION TODAY. KSUN WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AND
LIKELY FREE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. MCKAUGHAN
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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