534
FXUS65 KPIH 180824
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
124 AM MST SAT JAN 18 2025
DISCUSSION
THE CHILL IS OFFICIALLY ON ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AS ARCTIC AIR IS
QUICKLY FILTERING IN TO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WE'RE STILL SEEING SOME
LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH HILLS THIS
MORNING BUT HI-RES CAMS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO DIMINISH
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND THE REST OF SATURDAY LOOKS DRY
REGIONWIDE. IT WILL BE COLD HOWEVER, AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWS FOR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL OVER THE DIVIDE KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. AFTER A BIT OF CLEARING
LATER THIS MORNING, MODELS SHOW CLOUDS RETURNING LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO SUN AM KEEPING TEMPS FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT ALTHOUGH
IT'LL STILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE MAGIC VALLEY WILL BE THE "WARMEST" LOCATION
HOVERING AROUND 10ISH DEGREES SUN AM.
WE'LL GET A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES IN MOUNTAIN AREAS
THAT FAVOR NORTHERLY UPSLOPE REGIMES BUT THIS WON'T BE ANYTHING
OVERLY IMPACTFUL. JUST SOME FLURRIES MORE OR LESS. THIS SECONDARY
PUSH SHOULD HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AM AND THIS LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS -15
TO -5 FROM AREAS AROUND ISLAND PARK AND DOWN INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN
COMBINED WITH LIGHT, BUT NON-ZERO, WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE RANGE OF EXTREME COLD CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN IDAHO. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIND CHILLS FROM 20 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO IN THE ZONES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH. IT'S A BIT MORE MARGINAL
AS YOU HEAD INTO THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN, SAY AROUND POCATELLO,
WHERE WIND CHILLS VALUES IN TOWN LIKELY STAY ABOVE -20 BUT RURAL
SECTIONS OF THAT ZONE, IE. FORT HALL, PINGREE, FIRTH ETC, HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING THIS CRITERIA. NEVERTHELESS, STILL HAVE
ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO TO FINE- TUNE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AND
UPGRADES TO WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME, IF NOT
ALL, OF THESE ZONES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
TUESDAY AM ALSO LOOKS COLD, CLOSE TO EXTREME COLD CRITERIA AGAIN
IN SPOTS, BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT WE'LL SEE ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL AS
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THANKFULLY, IT
DOES LOOK DRY THOUGH SO WE WON'T HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANY SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, MODELS DO SHOW A
POTENTIAL DIP IN THE JET STREAM ALLOWING A TROUGH TO MOVE IN
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED AT THE MOMENT. STILL A WEEK
AWAY THOUGH SO PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THIS SHAKES OUT. BOTTOM
LINE, EXPECT COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION
VFR IN PLACE THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBYI WHERE
SOME LINGERING SNOWFALL STILL REMAINS. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ALL TERMINALS WILL BE DRY FOR THE REST OF
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS REGIONWIDE. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE STRATUS POTENTIAL. STILL EXPECTING CIGS TO LOWER THIS
MORNING AS WE GET CLOSER TO DAYBREAK BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DO
SO THUS FAR AND COULD REMAIN IN THE 4-5KFT RANGE KEEPING THINGS
VFR BUT WE'LL SEE. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP SAT PM AND INTO
SUN AM POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MVFR STRATUS, ESPECIALLY
AROUND KIDA AND KDIJ BUT AGAIN, WE'LL SEE. CONFIDENCE ISN'T TOO
HIGH AT THE MOMENT. MCKAUGHAN
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR IDZ052>054-062-065>067.
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