352
FXUS65 KPIH 160840
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
140 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING, WITH A BIG JUMP EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY, WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM
BURLEY TO FORT HALL DURING THE DAY. WE WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW INITIALLY FOR ALL AREAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE CHANGEOVER FROM
POCATELLO WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL LEAD TO LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. ON THE FLIP SIDE,
WE WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM
AROUND REXBURG TO ASHTON HILL. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE WILL
SEE IT REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY, SNAKE PLAIN, AND
ADJACENT BENCH AREAS. WHERE IT REMAINS BREEZY AND WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND, THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. MEANWHILE, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURES SHIFTS TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. A SIMILAR TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER VS TODAY. THE WIND ALSO
INCREASES A BIT, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE DO EXPECT THE WIND THOUGH TO CREATE SOME
LIMITED AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING DUE TO THINGS WARMING UP.
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME AREAS SEEING DOWNSLOPE, LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED IN MOST AREAS...GENERALLY
AROUND 3" OR LESS OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FOR THE SPINE OF
THE SAWTOOTHS, WE SHOULD SEE 12-18" THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGHER PEAKS AND RANGES SEEING 8-12". FOR NOW, WE ARE
NOT SEEING ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER BACKCOUNTRY TO ISSUE ANY
TYPE OF ADVISORY OR WARNING AT THE MOMENT. THE SAME FOR THE SOUTH
HILLS AND ALBION MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
HIGHEST PEAKS WHERE UP TO NEAR 1 FOOT IS EXPECTED, WITH A SHARP
DROP OFF AS YOU HEAD TOWARD LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON HIGHER IMPACT TOTALS BEING FROM
REXBURG TO ASHTON HILL. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS INTO MONDAY, WHERE
UP TO 8" IS POSSIBLE FOR THE VALLEYS AND 10-20" FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WE COULD SEE THE BIG HOLES ACTUALLY PUSH 2 FEET. WE
EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUED
SNOWFALL INTO TOMORROW ACROSS THE BEAR RIVER RANGE. FOR THE
HIGHLANDS SOUTH AND EAST OF POCATELLO, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING....WHERE UP TO 3" REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AND UP AROUND 8" FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. KEYES
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL BE EXITING TO OUR EAST COME TUESDAY. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, ELEVATED WINDS WILL SUPPORT BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS
WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED, GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
UP TO 4 IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. A TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW VARIATION REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN PRELIMINARY SNOW TOTALS. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY
AREAWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POTENTIAL LIGHT FLURRIES HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STABLE AND RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. CROPP
AVIATION
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MORE ORGANIZED -SN ARE
FORECAST AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT
ORGANIZED PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE NEAR KSUN AROUND 12Z AND
GRADUALLY REACH THE OTHER TERMINALS BY 14Z. WHILE KSUN SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MVFR BY 19Z, THE OTHER TERMINALS FURTHER EAST
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IMPACTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
IFR VIS AND CIGS FORECAST WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR
ANTICIPATED. BREEZY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW TO REDUCE VIS AT TIMES. GUSTS
TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KSUN. CROPP
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR IDZ058-
062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST MONDAY FOR IDZ060-063>066.
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