004
FXUS65 KPIH 162130
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
230 PM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MIDDAY SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A H5 TROUGH CONTINUING TO
BUILD INTO SE IDAHO AND THE NRN ROCKIES FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH
WILL SUPPORT DAILY, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH MONDAY AS WINDS PEAK ON MONDAY. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ERN MAGIC VALLEY
REGION WHILE PREDOMINANT SNOW REMAINS FAVORED ELSEWHERE. GIVEN
W/NW MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE SRN/ERN HIGHLANDS SE OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN WHERE A MIX OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO
CAPTURE THIS UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TIMING
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ON THE END TIME DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
SNOW ENDS UP TAPERING OFF HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS ALSO LOOK TO DO WELL IN THIS EVENT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE SAWTOOTH VALLEY BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED AT GALENA SUMMIT, HAVE HELD OFF WITH ANY PRODUCTS UP IN
THAT DIRECTION. ENDED UP DROPPING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AS THE MAJORITY OF THAT ZONE IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO SEE 1-3" OF NEW SNOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT KEEP IN
MIND AS YOU GET NE OF THE IDAHO FALLS/REXBURG CORRIDOR, LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN THAT 3-6" RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. YOU CAN FIND OUR LATEST EXPECTED, HIGH-END, LOW-END, AND
PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS AT WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO/WINTER.
WINDS TOMORROW WILL PEAK AROUND 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-45 MPH,
STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 45-55 MPH.
AS A RESULT, NO WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
BUT CRITERIA IS JUST ABOUT THERE ON THE LOW-END SO CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S/30S/40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S/30S. MACKAY
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS EXITING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY, WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE OF HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS. UPPER
RIDGE IS SHORT LIVED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM HOT ON ITS HEELS ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR IN CHARACTER TO RECENT SYSTEMS, BUT THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AND
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS. LONGER TERM, MODELS APPEAR TO BE SETTLING ON
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY, THOUGH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES STILL PUSH THROUGH
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, PER THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
RUNS. THEREFORE WOULD NOT EXPECT A FULLY DRY FORECAST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT HEADED INTO THE
WEEKEND, HOWEVER. DMH
AVIATION
18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS EXITING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY, WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE OF HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS. UPPER
RIDGE IS SHORT LIVED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM HOT ON ITS HEELS ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR IN CHARACTER TO RECENT SYSTEMS, BUT THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AND
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS. LONGER TERM, MODELS APPEAR TO BE SETTLING ON
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY, THOUGH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES STILL PUSH THROUGH
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, PER THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
RUNS. THEREFORE WOULD NOT EXPECT A FULLY DRY FORECAST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES DO LOOK A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT HEADED INTO THE
WEEKEND, HOWEVER. DMH
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR IDZ056>059-
061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR IDZ060-063>066.
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