936
FXUS65 KPIH 170839
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
139 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH OF A LET-UP IN
THE SNOW AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW ELEVATION RAIN. OPERATIONAL
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE MAP FOR TIMING AND AMOUNT,
ESPECIALLY STARTING TUE MORNING. NEARLY ALL OF THEM HAVE
PRECIPIATION PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON, THEN A WIDELY VARYING
OVERNIGHT AND TUE/TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING PERIOD. HOWEVER, IT IS
MAINLY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD. THEN ANOTHER, STRONGER IMPULSE OF
MOISTURE ARRIVES WED AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE FOR IDAHO; NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES INCREASE STRONGLY
ON TUE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC TO
THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST. WITH THESE EVEN MORE NORTHERLY WINDS BY
TUE, AT LEAST THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO
SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CURRENT SITUATION WITH WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY, AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH HILLS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS
MORNING WITH THE CLOUD COVER. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS, CONTINUING MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
SOME, WHILE THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND ARCO DESERT HAVE
FEWER CLOUDS AND COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. TUE NIGHT WILL SEE A
REDUCTION AS THE CURRENT IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
EXITS. LOWS WILL BE FROM NEAR ZERO FOR THE UPPER BASINS OF THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS TO
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, EXPECTED SUSTAINED WIND TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
30 MPH AND GUSTS BELOW 40 MPH FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
MESSICK
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
COME MID-WEEK, THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING AS THE
TRANSIENT RIDGE OVERHEAD DEPARTS EASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT VARIATION AMONGST MODELS REGARDING
THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. BOTH GEFS AND EPS SHOW THE CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING TO OUR SOUTH INTO NV AND UT. BEHIND THE
UPPER TROUGH, ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEGINNING FRIDAY AND REMAINING IN CONTROL OF
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY OR LATER. LONG-RANGE MODELS DO
SHOW SHORTWAVE FEATURES WORKING THROUGH THE RIDGE, WHICH COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. THIS WILL MEAN
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CROPP
AVIATION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN ALL
TERMINALS TODAY, WITH HI-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATING A FEW ROUNDS
OF MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME, BEGINNING AROUND
12Z. THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND IS FOR MVFR CIGS WITH DEGRADATION TO
IFR EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED
AGAIN TODAY, WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS FORECAST AT KPIH, KIDA, AND KBYI
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FURTHER
REDUCTIONS IN VIS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CROPP
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR IDZ056>059-
061-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR IDZ060-063>066.
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