588
FXUS65 KPIH 180844
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
144 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
SHOULD END AROUND 18/0500 SO WILL LET THE CURRENT SUITE OF
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS EXPIRE. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS FOR ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT; HOWEVER, LIGHT
SNOW DOES CONTINUE, WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN HILLS,
THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY, AND THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN MAY SEE
A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN THAT LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ON WED
AFTERNOON, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS TIME FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL FIRST CAUSE A WIND SHIFT, THEN SPREAD RAIN AND
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
EMPHASIS RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN HALF (ABOUT POCATELLO NORTHWARD), WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THEN GET THEIR SHARE OF SNOW.
BY THU, THE RAIN AND SNOW HAVE ENDED IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ARE THE ONLY PLACE STILL
RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, BEFORE IT FADES TO LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THU AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW TAKING
A RIGHT HAND TURN TO THE SOUTH, PUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO
A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND THUS NO MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
TEMPERATURES OVER 40 TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HILLS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. ELSEWHERE IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, IT WILL BE SOMETHING
OF A STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING, WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
STILL SOMEWHAT PREVALENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COLDER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WED AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY
THE SAME AS THE WARMER AIR MASS IS OFFSET BY THE CLOUD COVER ON
WED AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER FOR WED
NIGHT MEANS VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN STANLEY STAYING IN
DOUBLE DIGITS. FOR LOWS. ON THU, THE CLOUD COVER MODERATES
TEMPERATURE VARIATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH IT BEING
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM OVER THE FREEZING POINT
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BELOW 5500-6000 FEET
BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EVEN RIGHT NOW AND SO INTO TODAY, WITH
WIND WEAKENING DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS TO BELOW 10 MPH
NEARLY EVERYWHERE. SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WED WILL
START OUT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND BUT THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL
FORCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WIND FOR THU EARLY MORNING WITH GUSTY WIND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
HILLS AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. MESSICK
LONG TERM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND RESULTING IN
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FEATURE STRONGER MOISTURE
SIGNATURES FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME WITH
NATIONAL BLEND POPS INCREASING TO WIDESPREAD 20 TO 40 PERCENT OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
DO INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING BY SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY,
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES RUNNING OVER 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
MANY LOCATIONS NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CROPP
AVIATION
LOW STRATUS IS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KPIH, KIDA, AND KBYI,
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AT THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS BY AROUND 18Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE AT KSUN UNDER HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS. PREDOMINANT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SN ARE ONGOING AT KDIJ WITH THE TRANSITION TO
VCSH ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CROPP
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IDZ060-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IDZ061-062.
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