626
FXUS65 KPIH 182055
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST,
PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS SE IDAHO UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WINDS
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD
TONIGHT, PATCHY AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG REMAIN FAVORED TO
DEVELOP WITH THE ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THAT RIDGE AXIS PULLS EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING IN
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SRN
IDAHO AS A H5 TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX BELOW ABOUT 4500 FEET. SNOW
RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE, TOPPING OUT AT AROUND
0.25-0.75 INCH/HOUR AT TIMES WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDS. STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING HAVE GONE UP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, NOW SHOWING A
WIDESPREAD 1-4" ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 3-8" ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS REGIONWIDE. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THAT 8-12" RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH HILLS AND
ALBION MOUNTAINS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND AMOUNTS BUT AM SEEING ABOUT A
50/50 ON ISSUING SO COULD SEE POTENTIAL HEADLINES ON FUTURE SHIFTS
GIVEN WHERE THE FORECAST TRENDS ARE. SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP AROUND THE MAGIC
VALLEY REGION. MACKAY
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
AS THE SUN COMES UP THURSDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LOW BRINGING US
ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTER WEATHER WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN IDAHO
KEEPING HIGH POPS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE LOW
EXITS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATER IN THE DAY. SOME ADDITIONAL
VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE CORRIDORS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL
WARMING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO
THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
AROUND THE ISLAND PARK REGION AND INTO THE TETON VALLEY ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
BUT WILL BE VERY LOW IMPACT. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING A
BIT MORE ZONAL SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
OVERSPILLING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO. TEMPERATURES AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH VALLEY TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW LIMITED TO AREAS ABOVE
6500-7000 FT DURING THIS PERIOD. MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION
18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
MVFR LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KPIH,
KIDA AND KDIJ WHERE BKN/OVC CIGS PERSIST IN THE 1500-3000 FT
RANGE. KSUN AND KBYI REMAIN AT VFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME
OCCASIONAL LOWER CIGS COULD SNEAK IN TO THE LATTER LOCATION
ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF
THE SW IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT ALL SITES OUTSIDE OF KSUN WHERE
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AS WE GET TOWARDS
THE MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO THE
REGION REACHING KSUN BY 16-18Z AND MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS IN THE 18-21Z WINDOW TOMORROW. SN WILL BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE EVERYWHERE WITH MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS LIKELY. KBYI COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF RASN/RA WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY. MCKAUGHAN
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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