898
FXUS65 KPIH 192128
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
228 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING INTO EAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO SWING INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BEHIND DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE RADAR
RETURNS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS JUST UPSTREAM. NAM IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE HRRR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, PICKING
UP ON THE LEADING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH EAST IDAHO
ALREADY. OF SLIGHTLY GREATER CONCERN IS THE NAM SOLUTION GREATLY
INCREASING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS BAND AS IT SHIFTS
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CORNER. LEADING INTO THE EVENING, THE CAMS
COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT ON TIMING PRECIPITATION AS IT SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE WET BULBS ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY/I-84 CORRIDOR ARE JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX
COULD SHIFT ALL THE WAY UP THE I-86 CORRIDOR TOWARD POCATELLO.
THAT SAID, PROJECTED SURFACE WET BULBS DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING
WHEN THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. TOWARDS MORNING, THE HEAVIEST BAND SHIFTS TO ALONG THE I-
15/I-86/I-84 CORRIDOR. THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAKLY SUGGESTIVE OF A
CONVERGENCE EVENT, AND SHOULD SUPPORT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL TOTALS SURROUNDING THE THURSDAY AM WORK/SCHOOL COMMUTES.
HAVE ADDED THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ZONE TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. NBM AND HREF ENSEMBLES STILL STRUGGLING WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS, BUT IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS SHOULD RUN IN THE 1-4" OR 2-5"
RANGES IN THIS REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING, EXPECT THAT EVEN THE
LOWER END RANGE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC, THUS THE ADVISORY. HAVE
EXTENDED IT INTO MID AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN ZONE, BUT
COULD SEE IT DROPPED EARLIER. CONVERSELY, IF CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY,
COULD SEE THAT ZONE ADDED TO THE HEADLINE PACKAGE OVERNIGHT.
SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY, WITH ALL MODELS ON BOARD WITH TIMING THE END OF THE
PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING EVEN THROUGH BEAR
LAKE. TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS LOOK TO
BE 6-8" INCHES, WITH SOME RIDGES LIKELY OVERPERFORMING EVEN THAT.
90TH PERCENTILE HREF SUPPORTS 4-6" TOTAL FOR THE I-15/I-86
CORRIDORS, AND 8-14" FOR RIDGES SOUTH AND EAST. DMH
LONG TERM
FRIDAY - NEXT WEDNESDAY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND YELLOWSTONE AND THE
TETONS BUT OVERALL, THINGS LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
ACROSS LOWER VALLEYS INTO THE 40S AS EARLY AS SATURDAY BUT BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE MOVING IN
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS, BUT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE HAS AT LEAST A CHANCE
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH (6500-7000FT) SO ANY PRECIP IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WOULD BE RAIN. THE WARMING CONTINUES INTO THE START OF THE WORKWEEK
AND SOME 50S APPEAR VERY LIKELY ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY AND INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. LOW-END POPS LOOK TO STICK AROUND
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL. MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO AS A STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO PREVAILING MVFR/IFR INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RASN IS POSSIBLE AT KPIH AND KBYI INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT
BEFORE P-TYPE CHANGES BACK TO SNOW BY THURSDAY AM. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, 10 KTS OR SO, THROUGH DAYBREAK TOMORROW BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT KBYI UP TO AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TOMORROW. THE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 KTS OR SO
WITH SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY. KSUN WILL LIKELY
SEE SNOW TAPER OFF JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THAT HOWEVER.
BOTTOM LINE, EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS (AT BEST) WITH IFR MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE THU AFTERNOON. MCKAUGHAN
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THURSDAY FOR IDZ053-
062>067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THURSDAY FOR IDZ054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THURSDAY FOR IDZ056>059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR IDZ060.
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