707
FXUS65 KPIH 201605
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
905 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
UPDATE
RADAR SHOWS BULK OF SNOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. HREF CONTINUES TO PAINT ADDITIONAL
AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY OF 1-3" ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SPINE OF THE ALBION MTNS, WHERE
ADDITIONAL 4-8" COULD FALL. HREF ENSEMBLE 90TH PERCENTILES SHADE
AN INCH OR TWO ABOVE THE MEANS, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE NORTH OF
POCATELLO THIS MORNING, AS RADAR, OBSERVATIONS, AND AREA WEB CAMS
INDICATED WIDESPREAD IMPACTS HAVE ENDED. BELIEVE BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS AND THE HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS FROM THE MORNING THAT WE MAY BE
ABLE TO LET THE REST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GO WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. DMH
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 228 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND FRIDAY.
EARLY MORNING RADAR LOOP SHOWS ONGOING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
IDAHO. CAMS SHOW ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY OVER MANY OF OUR MAJOR
POPULATION CENTERS ALONG THE I-84, I-86, AND I-15 CORRIDORS EARLY
TO MID-MORNING, MEANING IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
DURATION FOR A FEW OF OUR SOUTHERN-MOST ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, WHICH
SHOW PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF QUITE RAPIDLY LATE MORNING HEADING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH INTO UTAH. CONSIDERING THIS TIMING,
PRECIPITATION NOW LOOKS TO VASTLY REMAIN SNOW AS THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY PRIOR TO PEAK WARMING. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS HEADING
INTO THE LATER MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS IN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL PREDOMINATELY RANGE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH UP TO 7 ABOVE PASS LEVEL AND CLOSER TO A FOOT IN THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ALBION MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS A FAIRLY LOCALIZED PORTION OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO, WHERE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE
6,000 FEET ELEVATION AS A RESULT OF GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH, GIVE
OR TAKE.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION FORECAST. AS CLOUDS SCATTER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN, LOW
STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF FREEZING FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND VALLEYS FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. CROPP
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT BIG
SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS PUSH WILL
ALSO BRING A HUGE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES, AS IN WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S! LOOK AT SOME 48 HOUR MOUNTAIN
SNOW PROBABILITIES, THERE IS A 60-65% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 3"
ALONG THE BORDER WITH YELLOWSTONE, AND A 30% CHANCE IN THE BIG
HOLES OF MORE THAN 3". FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, THERE IS A
50-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 10" FOR THE SAWTOOTHS...AND 45-55%
CHANCE OF MORE THAN 8" FOR THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN RANGES. THERE
WILL BE SOME WIND BUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, BLOWING/DRIFTING
WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE RIGHT ON
THIS ONE'S HEALS, WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS 20-35% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 3" FOR THE
SAWTOOTHS/SURROUNDING RANGES, AROUND ISLAND PARK, AND THE BIG
HOLES. SINCE THIS IS A WARMER PATTERN, LET'S LOOKS AT RAIN/MELTED
SNOW TOTALS. EARLY PROBABILITIES SHOW A 40-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
0.33" ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE IS A 20-45% CHANCE OF
MORE THAN 1" FOR THE SAWTOOTHS AND SURROUNDING RANGES...AND A 20%
CHANCE OF SURPASSING 1.50". WE SHOULD RAPIDLY DRY FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. KEYES
AVIATION...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
SNOW (MIXED WITH SOME RAIN AND DRIZZLE) CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE THIS ROUND END FOR MOST
TAF SITES BY 5PM. SOME WRAPAROUND COULD IMPACT PIH AND BYI
THROUGH MID EVENING. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE ALL TAF SITES WITH
FLUCTUATING FROM MVFR TO LIFR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING,
IMPROVING BASED ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FOR
EACH INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE. FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL FOG OR LOW CLOUDS UP AND DOWN
THE SNAKE PLAIN, AND PERHAPS SNEAKING INTO THE TETON VALLEY AND
DIJ. KEYES
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IDZ054-
056>059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IDZ060.
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