536
FXUS65 KPIH 202053
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LOW HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE, WITH WEAK WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF EAST
IDAHO. LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING IN SOME PLACES, BUT TREND WILL BE
FOR DIMINISHING SNOWFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WILL ALLOW
THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO DROP OFF WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED SOUTH, SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALED BROAD SWATH OF LOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. A FEW AREA WEB CAMS DO INDICATE PRESENCE OF FOG
ALREADY WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF STRATUS. HAVE LEFT STRATUS EMBEDDED
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BUT INCREASED THE SPREAD AND TIMING OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS FOR TONIGHT. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, NOR
WOULD WE BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY OR TWO.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER TOMORROW MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. NBM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUPPORT MOST
ELEVATIONS RISING TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY. PROBABILITY OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 IS LIMITED TO THE RAFT RIVER AND EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY LOWER ELEVATIONS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT THERE ARE MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
DMH
LONG TERM
SATURDAY - NEXT THURSDAY
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN ON THE DRY SIDE FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TETONS AND YELLOWSTONE BUT THESE SHOULD BE OF LITTLE
IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY LIKELY TO
SURPASS 40 FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, SAME FOR SOME OF OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GET
FLATTENED A BIT AND TWO SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE ON SUNDAY AM BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON
THE HIGHER SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO
AREAS ABOVE 6500-7000 FT SO AREAS BELOW THIS WILL SEE RAIN. THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THESE LOCATIONS
WON'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP BUT WE ALSO CAN'T RULE IT OUT.
THIS FIRST ROUND WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY
PUSH COMING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
WARMER AT THIS POINT WITH WIDESPREAD 40S LIKELY WHILE THE LOWER
SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY WILL LIKELY SURPASS 50 BY THIS POINT.
THERE IS ALSO LESS MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO ANY WINTER WEATHER
WILL LIKELY BE AT AND ABOVE PASS LEVELS. AFTER THIS SECOND SYSTEM
DEPARTS, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION KEEPING THINGS DRY AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION
THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT EASTERN IDAHO TERMINALS ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT KDIJ THROUGH SUNSET. THE BIGGER ISSUE
NOW TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS. MODELS ARE GOING ALL-IN WITH
LENGTHY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION, SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THIS.
KPIH, KIDA, KBYI AND KDIJ ALL SEEM LIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACCORDINGLY AND THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY EVEN BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AND CONDITIONS COULD BE EVEN WORSE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. KSUN WILL LIKELY STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FOG/STRATUS BUT IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE THE STRATUS CAN ENCROACH FAR
ENOUGH NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AREA WIDE. MCKAUGHAN
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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