203
FXUS65 KPIH 212043
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
143 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH IS LEADING TO CONTINUED
MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS SE IDAHO UNDER A MIX OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GIVEN A FAIRLY STAGNANT
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE, AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT OF THESE LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES WHICH COUPLED
WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG, MAY LEAD TO SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE CNTRL
MOUNTAINS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF SOME
FLURRIES. HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING IN THE TEENS/20S FOR MOST WITH
COLDEST MOUNTAIN BASINS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS FROM THE PACIFIC REMAINS ON TRACK TO BRING IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND WARMER TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME. MORE ON THAT BELOW. MACKAY
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
ON SUNDAY WE'LL SEE THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO.
THIS FIRST SYSTEM HAS THE MOST MOISTURE WITH BUT THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON AN
UPWARD TREND ON SUNDAY, AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, SO SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE RUNNING ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TO OUR HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ABOVE. ANY PRECIP THE MAKES IT INTO OUR LOWER VALLEYS
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WE GET EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY AS 50S
BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE FROM THE LOWER SNAKE INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY
WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ELSEWHERE. WE'LL SEE A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD
FROM AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHES IN. THIS WILL BRING SOME MORE HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW TO OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES BUT OF OUR LARGER POPULATION
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM. AFTER THIS, MODELS
SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION BRINGING IN A DRY
PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHAT SOME MIGHT CALL A
TASTE OF EARLY SPRING TO END FEBRUARY AND START THE MONTH OF
MARCH. MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION
18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT PREDOMINATELY ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT DOWN TOWARDS
THE LAVA BEDS. THIS HAS KEPT IT OUT OF KBYI AND KPIH BUT IT
CONTINUES TO HAVE IMPACTS AT KIDA AND REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO KSUN
BUT STILL CONTINUES JUST SOUTH OF THERE. AT THIS POINT, KIDA WILL
LIKELY SEE INTERMITTENT BREAKS WHERE SOME BRIEF CLEARING IS
REALIZED BUT ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN, THEY'LL LIKELY RETURN TO
PREDOMINANT IFR. SAME CAN BE SAID AT KDIJ WHERE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER
IN STRATUS POTENTIAL AS WE GET TO KPIH. IT'LL BE CLOSE BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SOME SCT CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AND WE'LL JUST
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE. KBYI AND KSUN ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT
EASTERN IDAHO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MCKAUGHAN
HYDROLOGY
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND SHEETING
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS. PONDING OF
WATER AND MINOR FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM MELTING SNOW
AT LOW ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTH HILLS, EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY, AND
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, GENERALLY BELOW 6000 FEET AND IN AREAS
WITH EXISTING SNOW, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS AROUND ALBION, BURLEY,
MALTA, AND RUPERT. HAZARDS COULD INCLUDE ELEVATED FLOWS IN SMALL
STREAM CHANNELS AND DRAINAGES, AND PONDING IN FLAT AREAS AND
UPSTREAM OF PLUGGED CULVERTS OR ROAD BERMS. AS A RESULT, A
HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SOUTH TO THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER WHERE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MELTING SNOW MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
IMPACTS. LOCALIZED LOWLAND FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA BUT THIS PRODUCT WAS FOCUSED ON WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE OVER THE COMING DAYS
REGARDING ANY CHANGES TO THIS PRODUCT. DALLON/MACKAY
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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