724
FXUS65 KPIH 272356
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
556 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING
- MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE
TEMPERATURES FALL, DUE TO LOW/MID-ELEVATION SNOWMELT AND
RUNOFF
- CONDITIONS TURN COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED LOW REMAINING PARKED OFF PACNW
COAST, WHILE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN OREGON TOWARD EAST IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS FILLED IN ACROSS EAST IDAHO, WITH
WEAK RADAR RETURNS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOME OF THE
REGION, LARGELY A REFLECTION OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
VIRGA BUT NO RECORDED PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND AS OF
YET. CAMS STILL DEVELOP LINE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST IDAHO, WITH SHOWERS
FILLING IN. CAPE IS MINIMAL, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH DYNAMICS
COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT.
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT GUSTS 40-45 MPH. THE BULK OF
THE THREAT SHOULD END MID EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. NBM DID NOT SUPPORT KEEPING THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING, BUT ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTION
THROUGH 9PM.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL FROM RECENT RECORD LEVELS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS FALL TOWARD BUT NOT COMPLETELY
TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS. SECOND SHORTWAVE RIDES THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
LESS SO ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS, BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITHIN THE SNAKE PLAIN. BREEZY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY, AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
BY SATURDAY, WE'LL BE INTO OUR ACTIVE, COOLER PATTERN ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN IDAHO. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT, SHOWERY PRECIPITATION REACHING VALLEY FLOORS
BY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. MOST
OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS,
THOUGH THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL IN
THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ABOUT 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE MID TO UPPER ELEVATIONS OF OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES. A VERY WEAK,
TRANSITORY RIDGE PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY GIVING US A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY THAT WILL ALLOW OUR AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO WARM JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO
THE PNW, THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON MONDAY. THIS BRINGS A
BIT BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO EASTERN IDAHO COMPARED TO THE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY OF THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE, AT LEAST. MODELS STILL
REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT WITH SOLUTIONS FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
ASHORE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VIS ARE
LIKELY AS THE COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH EACH
TERMINAL WITH THE HREF 24-HOUR THUNDER PROBABILITY SHOWING A
BLANKET 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED THE ARRIVAL TIME BETWEEN 02-06Z AT KPIH, KIDA,
AND KBYI WITH 05-08Z AT KDIJ, WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GREATEST IMPACT TO VIS DUE TO RASN, WITH ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY
INDICATED IN HI-RES MODELS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
NEAR ANY STORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE
MORE SHOWERY. HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE WINDS AT KPIH, KIDA, AND
KBYI HEADING INTO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS
OVER 20KT BY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR
COLDER MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO EAST IDAHO.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE DELAYED RUNOFF DUE TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED THE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. SILVER CREEK NEAR PICABO CONTINUES
TO FLUCTUATE NEAR THE LOWER END OF ACTION STAGE, AND THE
PORTNEUF RIVER IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY THREAT
LEVELS FOR THIS WARMTH CYCLE. MELT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.
PRECIPITATION COULD ADD TO RUNOFF CONCERNS, BUT IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE LOCALIZED.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...CROPP
HYDROLOGY...DMH
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