301
FXUS65 KPIH 281728
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1128 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT DEPARTING SE THIS MORNING WITH A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS.
- A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING AS A COOLER
AIRMASS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
- A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY AHEAD OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BUILDING IN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEPARTING COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS AREAS OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST FILL IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH SHIFT EAST INTO WYOMING
AS PREDOMINANT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN REGIONWIDE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS ONGOING
AROUND THE MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EAST THIS MORNING, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE. LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS
THIS AFTERNOON, A QUICK- MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST WILL BRING AROUND 100-300 J/KG OF CAPE, HELPING TO
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS BEST
CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO WESTERN/CENTRAL IDAHO AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25-45 MPH.
FURTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST, A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL EJECT A CUTOFF LOW INTO THE PACNW
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN IDAHO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY. GIVEN A COLDER AIRMASS BUILDING IN WITH THIS SYSTEM, A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT IN THAT T-0.25" RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 0.25-0.50". IN TERMS OF
SNOW, MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LOOK TO SEE A T-2" WITH THE MOUNTAINS
PICKING UP AROUND 1-6". THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LOOKS TO SEE VERY
LITTLE SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE UPPER
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WHERE A T-0.5" REMAINS POSSIBLE. AS A
TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FILL IN BEHIND THIS EXITING
SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED TO RETURN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL END UP TRENDING BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS BACK IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ALSO LOOK TO RETURN TO BELOW FREEZING REGIONWIDE. WINDS
ON SATURDAY KEEPING WITH OUR ACTIVE WEATHER TREND WILL AGAIN
REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25-45 MPH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE
SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER SUNDAY, FORECAST LOOKS VERY
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK
PRODUCING SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WET
WEATHER. MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK THE COLDEST AND
POTENTIALLY WETTEST WITH BEST CHANCES FOR HEADLINE WORTHY SNOWS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE HIGHLANDS. THIS OCCURS AS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THIS TROUGH TO
MOVE EAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
BY NOW, MOST OF THE DUST HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT AND IS NO LONGER
IMPACTING VIS AT OUR TAF SITES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP A BIT NOW, TOO,
WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 20-25 KTS AT BYI, PIH, AND IDA
WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AT SUN AND DIJ. OVERALL, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT SOME
ELEVATION BASED SHOWERS WILL MEAN THE NEED FOR VCSH TO REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUN, DIJ, AND BYI. THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED
ROUND OF MOISTURE ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AROUND 13-14Z. THE HRRR
WANTS TO BRING THIS MOISTURE INTO MORE OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
THAN THE NAM NEST WHICH KEEPS MORE OF THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH
HILLS AND SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS. SINCE THIS IS ARRIVING TOWARDS
THE END OF THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD, WILL GO WITH ADDITIONAL
VCSH AT SUN AND PIH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR -RA
AT BYI, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS ABOUT A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF -SN MIXING WITH -RA AT BYI.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT THU MAR 27 2025
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR
COLDER MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO EAST IDAHO.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE DELAYED RUNOFF DUE TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED THE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. SILVER CREEK NEAR PICABO CONTINUES
TO FLUCTUATE NEAR THE LOWER END OF ACTION STAGE, AND THE
PORTNEUF RIVER IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY THREAT
LEVELS FOR THIS WARMTH CYCLE. MELT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMALS, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.
PRECIPITATION COULD ADD TO RUNOFF CONCERNS, BUT IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE LOCALIZED.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MACKAY
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...AMM
HYDROLOGY...DMH
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