503
FXUS65 KPIH 291950
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS (~10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS
SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
- DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AND NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKLY CLOSED LOW SPINNING THROUGH IDAHO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE LOW. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY, RISING TO 6000-6500 FT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, AND 5500-6000
FT BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE RAIN,
AND THOUGH MOST OF THE SNAKE PLAIN SHOULD BE THE DRIEST OF EAST
IDAHO, CAN'T REALLY RULE OUT A SHOWER ANYWHERE TODAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL BACK TO VALLEY FLOORS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
DIVIDE OVERNIGHT, WHILE THE TROUGH STILL LINGERS ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE IS STILL A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, WITH THE NAM NEST BRINGING
A VERY HINT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MUD LAKE AREA.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE REMAINED DRY
THAT FAR SOUTH, SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW, BUT THIS MAY BE AN
IMPACT TO WATCH FOR GOING FORWARD INTO TONIGHT. SNOW TOTALS
REMAIN LIGHT, MAXING OUT ROUGHLY 3-5" HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG
THE MONTANA BORDER.
SUNDAY STARTS OUT DRY FOR MOST AREAS, BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS IDAHO VERY LATE IN THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE AVAILABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, THAT AFTERNOON
BUILD-UPS OVER THE SNOWPACK COULD DROP A WEAK SHOWER ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT A SURPRISE THAT THE NBM DEVELOPED BARELY-
THERE 15% POPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS TIME OF YEAR AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER POP AND MORE
ORGANIZED QPF DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EAST IDAHO LEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WARM UP
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SO RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED AT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN AN ACTIVE ONE AS WE WRAP UP MARCH AND
HEAD INTO APRIL. MONDAY WILL STILL BE A "WARMER" DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKING THEIR RETURN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY IS EJECTED FROM A LOW SITTING OFF THE COAST
OF THE PNW MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY AND FALLING TO VERY NEAR FREEZING BY TUESDAY
MORNING, VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DOWN IN THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ANY SNOW THAT DOES
FALL IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY STAY BELOW
AN INCH. AS YOU WOULD VENTURE TO GUESS, SNOW TOTALS WILL BE
INCREASING AS YOU GO UP IN ELEVATION WITH THE NBM SHOWING ABOUT A 20
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW AT GALENA SUMMIT,
A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ISLAND
PARK AREA, AND A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF
SNOW AT EMIGRATION SUMMIT IN THE 48 HOURS FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY, TOO, INTO THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES RIGHT INTO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, SO THE OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
PRETTY SOLID BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND
TO GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THE FORECAST HOLDS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH PART OF THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TODAY. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AROUND BYI AND PIH
BEFORE IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH AT EACH
TAF SITE AND DROP CIGS AT IDA LIKE WE'VE SEEN AT BYI AND PIH SO
FAR AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH, EVEN IF RAIN DOESN'T MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND. CIGS AT SUN CONTINUE TO HANG RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF
FEW TO SCT AT 010, SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT, TOO. AT BYI,
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FIRST. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES
TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT BYI, PIH, AND IDA. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND IDA AND DIJ EARLY SUNDAY, AND CAMS
ARE HINTING AT SOME LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN SUNDAY MORNING, TOO, SO HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR PIH
AND IDA THEN.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
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