906
FXUS65 KPIH 302019
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
219 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A HANDFUL OF
MOUNTAIN ZONES DUE TO FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6-10
INCHES.
- WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, PEAKING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- A SECONDARY PACIFIC SYSTEM BUILDING IN MIDWEEK WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
RADAR AND LOCAL CAMERAS SHOW LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUING IN PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/MUD LAKE AREA AS SOME WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE SLOWLY DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN LIFTING NORTH OUT OF UTAH INTO THE SOUTH HILLS. OVERALL, WE'RE
STILL IN A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK FROM MORE ORGANIZED MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK RIDGE PASSES OVER US, BUT THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN DRIVING OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
OUR WAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW, SO WE ARE EXPECTING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
WITH SOME DRY TIME IN BETWEEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AND EVEN
INTO TUESDAY. IT'S ON TUESDAY THAT WE SEE MORE OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. FOR
TONIGHT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN IN THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A BIT
CLOSER TO FREEZING, THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
ON MONDAY, WE WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY, SOUTH HILLS, SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, AND SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS. THE LATEST HREF 24-HOUR THUNDER PROBABILITY SHOWS
ABOUT A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH TOTALS
CLOSER TO 5 TO 7 INCHES AROUND GALENA SUMMIT AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE ISLAND PARK AREA, MONIDA PASS, AND AROUND EMIGRATION SUMMIT
ON MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
ON TUESDAY WHERE WE SEE MORE OF THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
LESS SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/SAWTOOTHS. THIS WILL GIVE THE
ISLAND PARK AREA, BIG HOLE MOUNTAINS, AND BEAR RIVER RANGE
48-HOUR SNOW TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THESE FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS, HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. IT'S A LOWER-END ADVISORY
EVENT, BUT OVERNIGHT SNOW COULD IMPACT SOME MORNING COMMUTES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE VALLEYS, WHICH MEANS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE NBM SHOWING ABOUT A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF SNOW AROUND IDAHO FALLS AND REXBURG ON
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE AREA WILL RESIDE UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
DAILY PRECIP CHANCES. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIP,
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT EASTERN
IDAHO. COULD BE CLOSE TO REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN SPOTS BUT
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS JUST SHY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR OVER THE DAYS AHEAD HOWEVER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
PATTERN IS A BIT MESSIER WITH PRECIP BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED IN
NATURE BUT POSSIBLE AT BASICALLY ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
BROAD TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE AREA. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
AND 40S. THINGS START TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WITH A REX-BLOCK PATTERN SETTING
UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW. H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING FRIDAY (CLOSER TO NORMAL) AND
CONTINUING TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 60S BECOMING MORE
COMMONPLACE ACROSS OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE DRIER SIDE FROM FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE CURRENTLY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS OF KSUN AND KDIJ LIKELY TO SEE SNOW WHILE
KIDA, KPIH AND KBYI WILL BE LIMITED TO RAIN. STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OUT THE PRECIP AS HI-RES
MODELS SHOW A RANGE OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. AS SUCH, CONTINUED
WITH MORE OF A BROADBRUSHED APPROACH BUT DID ADD A TEMPO FOR
KSUN WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE OF A CONSENSUS. BOTTOM
LINE, EXPECT GRADUALLY DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS AS WE
GET INTO THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND PRECIPITATION AT
ALL EASTERN IDAHO TERMINALS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR IDZ060-063-064-066-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR IDZ071>074.
SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
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