197
FXUS65 KPIH 311951
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
151 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES AT HIGH ELEVATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT SNOW IS A THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- WINDY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, DIMINISHED WIND
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
WEATHER RADAR INDICATES THAT THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS HAS
STARTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THIS SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CONTINUE LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000FT
ELEVATION SHOULD SEE MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT IF THEY
ARE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, WITH WHAT IS
CONSIDERED LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500FT. THE SNOWFALL IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE EFFECTIVELY OVER BY THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL
LET THE ADVISORY THERE CONTINUE UNTIL THE 31/1800MDT FINALE. THE
OTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED TWO ZONES THAT WILL HAVE
MODERATE SNOWFALL CRITERIA ABOVE 6000FT ELEVATION, ZONE 58 AND
59, WHICH ARE THE HIGHLANDS SURROUNDING INTERSTATE 15 FROM
POCATELLO SOUTH TO THE BORDER. ALL THE OTHER ZONES IN THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS CURRENTLY UNDER THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUE AS WELL.
WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO HOLD UNDER 40 MPH, PEAKING TUE AFTERNOON
AND STRONGLY DECREASING DURING TUE EVENING. SINCE IT APPEARS TO
STAY UNDER 40 MMPH, BELIEVE WIND ADVISORIES ARE NOT REQUIRED AT
THIS TIME.
ON TUE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT FOR THE WEEK, ABOUT 8 TO
12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
ON A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS SKY
COVER DECREASES AND COLDER AIR SETTLES IN TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE REGION WILL RESIDE UNDER A LARGE UPPER TROUGH FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS APPEAR
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BUT A FEW WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORTICITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT SHOULDN'T BE ANYTHING OVERLY IMPACTFUL. THE BIGGER
ISSUE WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE WILL BE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, GRADUALLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY, IT
APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PLEASANT
WEATHER AND A SWITCH FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL
ONES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY WILL BE THE DAY WE BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO A DRIER PATTERN BUT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
HIGH ELEVATION PRECIP. SATURDAY IS WHEN THINGS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS RETURNING WELL INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH 60S BECOMING MORE COMMONPLACE FOR THE DAY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY AND ALLOW FOR
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WARMING TREND LOOKS LIKE IT'LL CONTINUE
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 70S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BE OUR FIRST
PROLONGED TASTE OF SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR EASTERN IDAHO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AT KPIH AND KIDA THIS MORNING AND THESE STRONGER WINDS
(15-25KT) WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BECOMING MORE
PROMINENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW PRECIP BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD, AND POTENTIALLY
CONVECTIVE, AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HAVE ADDED SOME TEMPOS FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE PRONOUNCED
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH COULD ALSO HAVE GUSTY WINDS
(30-40KTS) WITH IT. STILL SEEING SOME LOCATION/TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE SO DON'T HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE. IT APPEARS THAT MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE A BIT OF A
PRECIP BREAK AFTER 02-04Z THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN AREA OF
FOCUS CLOSER TO KDIJ AS SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW. SOME OF THIS COULD SNEAK INTO KIDA AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOWER. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR LOW-END VFR TO PREVAIL BUT SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. KDIJ COULD SEE MORE
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE BEING MOSTLY SNOW KEEPING VSBYS
LOWER.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR IDZ058-059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR IDZ060-063-
064-066-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ071>074.
SHORT TERM...MESSICK
LONG TERM...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
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