775
FXUS65 KPIH 012302
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
502 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- DRY WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
PLENTY OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH HILLS, THOUGH THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALMOST EVERYONE IN OUR CWA. THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AS A WEAK
LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF IDAHO, SO WILL LET WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUE. THERE'S EVEN A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE YOU HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND SOME LOCALLY
STRONGER GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AROUND THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY/SOUTH
HILLS AREAS. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, LOOK FOR SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THESES AREAS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW (LESS THAN AN INCH) TO THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WE REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS WEEK, SO LOOK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERY ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST WITH SOME LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS
OF THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY, LOWER SNAKE PLAIN, AND WOOD RIVER
VALLEY. HIGHS WARM JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THIS IS A VERY SLOW START TO OUR
WARMING TREND THAT WILL GET GOING A BIT MORE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MORE ON THAT BELOW...
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WEEK, THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS DISORGANIZED
IN NATURE AND WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CAN'T RULE
SOMETHING OUT IN THE VALLEYS BUT MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION BRINGING IN A WARMER AND DRIER PERIOD OF
WEATHER. FRIDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY WHERE TEMPS RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL (LOWER 50S IN THE VALLEYS) WITH 40S STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING WILL OCCUR
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS PRECIP-FREE AND MOSTLY SUNNY WHILE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE 60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE SEEN SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS
TREND TOWARDS A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND NBM TEMPERATURES HAVE NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BUT ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
AS AN OUTLIER. IT'LL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR NEVERTHELESS.
EITHER WAY, FORECAST STILL REMAINS BASICALLY DRY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, JUST HOW WARM REMAINS UP FOR DEBATE AMONGST
THE MODELS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW IT ALL PANS OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 454 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
SHSN/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CEASE AT OR PRIOR TO 02/02Z THIS
EVENING, EXCEPT FOR KDIJ, WHERE IT THE SHOWER THREAT CONTINUES
ON AND OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE SHSN/SHRA WILL ALSO RISK
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS STARTS DURING
THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW, EXCEPT FOR KPIH AND KBYI
WHICH APPEAR TO MISS SHSN UNTIL AFTER 03/00Z. WIND WILL BE
WEAKER DURING COMPARED TO TUE. THE ENTIRETY OF EASTERN IDAHO IS
AT A RISK OF GENERAL TSRA, BUT CURRENT NBM RISK IS LESS THAN 5
PERCENT RIGHT NOW FOR ALL AIRDROMES, SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED EVEN
VCTS...FOR NOW.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ058>060-063-064-066-067.
SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...MESSICK
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