224
FXUS65 KPIH 021928
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
128 PM MDT WED APR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
- DRY WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT WED APR 2 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS IDAHO/UTAH TODAY.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LOW IN COLD POOL CONTINUING TO FIRE SHOWERS ACROSS EAST IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, OTHERWISE EXPECT PRIMARILY MIX OF
SNOW/GRAUPEL, WITH LIGHT 1-2" ACCUMULATIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH A FEW RANGES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SHOW SOME ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 3-4" IF
THE SHOWERS KEEP REDEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREAS. SHOWERS
TAPER OVERNIGHT, BUT RETURN AGAIN ON THURSDAY, ALBEIT WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT WED APR 2 2025
LONG WAVE TROF PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVING OUT AS WELL. THIS WILL OPEN
THE DOOR TO THE WEST FOR AN ENCROACHING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE SPACE INCLUDING
THE MULTIPLE SUITES OF ENSEMBLES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DEVOLVE SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ERODES THE HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE
AREA, IF EVEN BRIEFLY BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULDN'T BE
SIGNIFICANT.
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WILL PLATEAU
JUST ABOVE NORMALS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
TEMPORARILY. AFTER TUESDAY, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-
ESTABLISH, BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND AMPLIFYING OUR WARMING
POTENTIAL. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD, WHERE THE NBM RECORDS MONITOR
IS SHOWING SOME VERY EARLY POTENTIAL AT CHALLENGING THE DAILY HIGH
RECORD FOR POCATELLO AND PERHAPS A FEW RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE'LL BE MONITORING GOING INTO NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWPACK STILL
TO MELT OFF THIS SPRING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED APR 2 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COMPLICATED CLOUD DEPICTION
THIS MIDDAY. THERE IS A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THAT IS BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN
AND CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS. MOST PORTS ARE VFR, ESPECIALLY AS
CLOUD BASES BEGIN TO LIFT WITH ADDITIONAL EARLY AFTERNOON
MIXING. THE CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 3K FEET, BUT
AS SHOWERS DEVELOP WE MAY SEE TEMPORARY DROPS IN CIGS TO MVFR,
PARTICULARLY AT DIJ AND PERHAPS IDA THROUGH THE EVENING. CAN'T
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER CELL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT LETTING SHOWERS RIDE IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW. ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GRAUPEL OR MODERATELY HEAVY
SNOW AT TIMES, WHICH COULD DROP VISIBILITIES IF THEY TRACK OVER
THE AIRFIELD. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MUCH IN THE WAY
OF IMPACT, OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY ERRATIC GUSTS FOR ANY OF THE PORTS.
TONIGHT, THE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
ONCE AGAIN WANE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE HREF IS HINTING
AT SOME LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE SNAKE PLAIN, ADJACENT TO
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR WHICH COULD PERHAPS SLOSH OVER PIH
IMPACTING CIGS IN THE MORNING THURSDAY. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE, WILL JUST INSERT MENTION OF FEW
LOWER CLOUDS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...TAX
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