126
FXUS65 KPIH 271146
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
546 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, MOSTLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, TRENDING DRY FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S ARE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK, GRADUALLY TRENDING WARMER TOWARDS
THE 80S/90S LATER IN THE WEEK.
- PATTERN CHANGE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A H5 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF PASSING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDS. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OUT OF
THE WEST, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WORKING UP AND OVER
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY COURTESY OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
OUTSIDE OF A 10-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY IN
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY AS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
THE HREF MODEL PROBABILITY OF THUNDER TODAY SHOWS THE MAIN
ACTIVE CORRIDOR ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS ALONG THE IDAHO-WYOMING BORDER REGION WHERE A 20-50%
CHANCE EXISTS. ELSEWHERE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOWER IN
THAT 5-20% RANGE. THE HREF ENSEMBLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
PARAMETERS TODAY SHOW ABOUT 400-800 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH
10-20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THAT AFOREMENTIONED MORE ACTIVE
AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN.
LOOKING TOWARDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN.
HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE 70S/80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
SYNOPTIC WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-35 MPH. LIGHTER WINDS
WILL MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S AND 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS THROUGH TO OUR NORTH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL ROUGHLY RANGE 15- 30% ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING
THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TAKE A FEW-DEGREE
HIT BEFORE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLY WEEKEND UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE COME EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL
LOWS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE CONSENSUS REGARDING THIS CHANGE IS
INCREASING, AS INDICATED BY 500 MB ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS, ENSEMBLES
STILL INDICATE SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY
AROUND 15 DEGREES BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND DECREASE BY
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES HEADING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AGAIN TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KPIH AND KIDA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL THREATEN KDIJ MOST WITH THE SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY TO REACH FURTHER SOUTHEAST NEAR KIDA. CONSIDERING THE
LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING, WE HAVE OPTED TO OMIT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE KIDA FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HREF
ENSEMBLE INDICATES MAX WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS IN THE
VICINITY OF KDIJ.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN. AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES SHIFT EAST TODAY,
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-35
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S EARLY IN THE
WEEK, TRENDING TOWARDS THE 80S/90S STARTING THURSDAY WHICH IS
ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ASIDE
FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE OVERALL TREND THIS WEEK WITH HUMIDITIES EACH DAY ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS DROPPING TO THE TEENS/20S. A PATTERN CHANGE IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO FINISH OUT THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOUT 85% OF ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MACKAY
LONG TERM...CROPP
AVIATION...CROPP
FIRE WEATHER...MACKAY
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