329
FXUS65 KPIH 271916
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
116 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, MOSTLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, TRENDING DRY FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S ARE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK, GRADUALLY TRENDING WARMER TOWARDS
THE 80S/90S LATER IN THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
- PATTERN CHANGE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN WYOMING, A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS/WESTERN
MONTANA, AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
OR/WA EXTENDING NORTH INTO CANADA.
WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS TODAY, MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) SHOWS OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER AN AREA OF
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE HREF MODEL 24-HOUR PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER TODAY CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
30-50%, ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. ELSEWHERE, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 20%. ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED
TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TOMORROW WITH OVERALL
DRY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
MONTANA DIVIDE AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS, ALONG THE WYOMING
BORDER.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S EACH DAY. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH.
AFTERNOON WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE LESS, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 80S
VALLEYS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AGAIN IN
THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SATURDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH MOST LOW ELEVATIONS IN THE 90S AND MOUNTAINS IN THE
70S AND 80S. THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC TROF
MOVES ON SHORE AND EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO OREGON. A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP FROM 70S
MOUNTAINS AND 80S VALLEYS SUNDAY TO THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY AND 50S
AND 60S ON TUESDAY. SO THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FROM SHIFTING FROM A
VERY HOT AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY INTO A MUCH COOLER
AND WETTER PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE AS WELL WITH SUSTAINED 10
TO 20 MPH WINDS WIDESPREAD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AT BYI, PIH AND IDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DO HAVE VICINITY THUNDER AT DIJ THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GONE AFTER
SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN. AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES SHIFT EAST TODAY,
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-35
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S EARLY IN THE
WEEK, TRENDING TOWARDS THE 80S/90S STARTING THURSDAY WHICH IS
ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ASIDE
FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE OVERALL TREND THIS WEEK WITH HUMIDITIES EACH DAY ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS DROPPING TO THE TEENS/20S. A PATTERN CHANGE IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO FINISH OUT THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOUT 85% OF ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...MACKAY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page