310
FXUS65 KPIH 280925
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
325 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TRENDING DRY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S WILL TREND
WARMER TOWARDS THE 80S/90S LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH RECORD
WARMTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90% CHANCE) SUPPORTS A PATTERN LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WORKING SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING, LEADING TO SCATTERED
MID/UPPER CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING, MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE HREF MODEL PROBABILITY OF THUNDER TODAY SHOWS A 20-50%
CHANCE IN THE EAST- CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN,
EASTERN HIGHLANDS, AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH A LOWER 10-20%
CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST HREF MODEL ENSEMBLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AROUND 200-600 J/KG OF CAPE AND
5-15 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. AS A RESULT, ONLY VERY ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, SMALL HAIL,
AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY, A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW
AND PASS TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF EASTERN IDAHO BUT WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE. THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OUT OF THE WEST SUPPORTS THE RETURN OF DRY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S/90S OR ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, INCREASING UP TO 35 MPH ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
IDAHO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS VERY WARM AND DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH FORECAST HIGHS REACHING 20
DEGREES, GIVE OR TAKE, ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. NATIONAL
BLEND PROBABILITIES SUGGEST AROUND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
POCATELLO AND BURLEY REACHING 92 DEGREES OR WARMER AND A 45 TO
55 PERCENT CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES FROM BLACKFOOT NORTHWARD TO
RIGBY. HEADING FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
AS AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PACNW. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE INCOMING SYSTEM TRANSITIONS OUR
PATTERN TO WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TO START OUT JUNE.
500MB ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST MODELS
REGARDING THIS POTENT LOW, ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING ARE STILL EVIDENT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING THROUGH MID-WEEK. GEFS AND EPS BOTH FEATURE 4 TENTHS
TO 1.2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATED QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF
BY UP TO 15 DEGREES BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREE DECREASE ON TUESDAY WILL SEND TEMPS
SOLIDLY INTO BELOW-NORMAL TERRITORY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 940 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, TRENDING TOWARDS THE
80S/90S STARTING THURSDAY OR ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY WITH
RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE OVERALL TREND THIS WEEK WITH
HUMIDITIES EACH DAY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS DROPPING TO THE
TEENS/20S. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EACH DAY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR UNANIMOUS ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT SUPPORTING OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND MORE ROBUST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY, HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 50S/60S WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MACKAY
LONG TERM...CROPP
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...MACKAY
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