125
FXUS65 KPIH 290437
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1037 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING TO 15-20 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL, A NEAR
RECORD FOR THE DATE.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHLANDS TODAY AND THURSDAY, DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
NEARLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FOR TONIGHT
AND THU/THU EVENING. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRI AND
SAT WILL NEARLY ELIMINATE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.
THIS PASSING TROUGH TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND MEANS CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG WARMING. EXPECT NEAR RECORD
WARMTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE CURRENT POCATELLO
FORECAST OF 90 THE SAME AS THE RECORD FROM 1997.
THE DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WIND TERRAIN-DRIVEN FOR
DIRECTION AND BELOW 12 MPH FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OUR PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS OUR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
START TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE A CHANGE OVER SEVERAL DAYS, SO
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL ADD MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
EASTERN IDAHO STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO OUR
AREA AS A LOW FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD
WHILE ANOTHER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ALL OF THIS
HAPPENS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SO IT IS GOING TO BE COOLER
AND WETTER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
FALL TO NEAR 70 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, MID AND UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY,
AND LOW TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF QPF IN OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS PUSHING 1 TO
1.25 INCHES OF QPF. GIVEN THE COOL DOWN AND MOISTURE CONTENT, LOOK
FOR SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL ON MOUNTAINTOPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW WOULD BE ABOVE PASS
LEVEL. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOL AND WET START TO THE START OF
JUNE!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS TIME, WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY
CLEAR. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED CLOSER TOWARDS THE MONTANA BORDER. COULD SEE SOMETHING
POTENTIALLY GET CLOSER TO KDIJ BUT FOR NOW, HAVE NO MENTION OF
PRECIP AT ANY TAF SITE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, TRENDING TOWARDS THE
80S/90S STARTING THURSDAY OR ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY WITH
RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE OVERALL TREND THIS WEEK WITH
HUMIDITIES EACH DAY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS DROPPING TO THE
TEENS/20S. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EACH DAY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR UNANIMOUS ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT SUPPORTING OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND MORE ROBUST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY, HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 50S/60S WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MESSICK
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...MACKAY
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