550
FXUS65 KPIH 291030
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
430 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, DRY FOR FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S/90S WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- PATTERN CHANGE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACNW AS DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH TODAY, WORKING OVER A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE,
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KICKOFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HREF MODEL PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FOR TODAY SHOWS
THE MOST ACTIVE CORRIDOR OF ACTIVITY IN THE EAST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHERE
A 30-60% CHANCE EXISTS. ELSEWHERE, THOSE CHANCES WILL BE LOWER
IN THAT 10-30% RANGE. AS A RESULT, HAVE EXPANDED UPON WHAT THE
NBM HAD FOR POPS TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS REGIONWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF
MODERATE RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S TO LOW 90S AROUND THE MAGIC
AND RAFT RIVER VALLEYS. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT, OUTSIDE OF
SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-30 MPH.
AS THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA TONIGHT,
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN REGIONWIDE AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY COURTESY OF ZONAL
FLOW OVERHEAD. WITH A RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
MAIN IMPACT IN LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FIRST BE THE HEAT WITH
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S VALLEYS. SOME
RECORDS MAY STILL BE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE PATTERN CHANGE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A PACIFIC TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
GRIDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
CHANCE THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL MANY LONG TERM MODELS NOW DO
NOT HAVE AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER IDAHO NOW WITH MOST HAVING
AN OPEN TROF MOVING THROUGH. SO OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS
LIKELY LOWER BUT WILL STILL TURN MUCH COLDER WITH SOME BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE VERY MILD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. THE BIG COOL DOWN WILL COME MONDAY WITH HIGHS DOWN TO THE
60S TO LOWER 70S AND THEN 50S MOUNTAINS AND 60S VALLEYS BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL THEN START TO WARM AGAIN NEXT
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S MOUNTAINS AND 70S VALLEYS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE BREEZIEST DAYS WITH MANY
SNAKE PLAIN SITES IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED SPEED RANGE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DROP TO THE 30S
MOUNTAINS AND 40S VALLEYS BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT EXPECT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO AGAIN HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND DID PUT VICINITY AFTER 20Z AT IDA, PIH AND DIJ
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE TO ACTUALLY SEE THUNDER
ON STATION IS DIJ. NOT EXPECTING MAJOR WIND IMPACTS TODAY WITH
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THE MAXIMUM AT THE TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DRY
CONDITIONS BACK REGIONWIDE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 70S/80S/90S. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON
SATURDAY, WITH RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
OVERALL TREND WITH HUMIDITIES EACH DAY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
DROPPING TO THE TEENS/20S, POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ON SATURDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE IN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE AROUND 8000
FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL HAVE
DROPPED FROM NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LEVELS ON SATURDAY TO THE
40S/50S/60S. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL COME INTO FOCUS OVER THE
COMING DAYS AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON EXACTLY
HOW THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ULTIMATELY BREAKS DOWN AND WHAT
ENDS UP REPLACING IT BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MACKAY
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...MACKAY
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