071
FXUS65 KPIH 302337
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
537 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
- COOLING TREND STARTS SUNDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT.
- SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
QUIET BUT WARM/HOT WEATHER FOR SAT. NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO RUN COLD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING. SO HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD.
SIMILAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING CLOUD COVER ON SUN WHICH WILL INHIBIT SOLAR
RADIATION TO START A COOLING TREND. PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN
NIGHT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT, BUT
MUCH MAY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CA-
MEXICO COAST AND HOW THE MOISTURE FROM THIS PROPAGATES
NORTHWARD. FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS, THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS
PRECIPITATION, WITH THE MOST OCCURRING SUN NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEST PROBABILITY ON SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING DOWN FROM LOWER 90S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS SAT TO UPPER 70S FOR MON, SO ABOUT A 13-17 DEG F
COOLING OVER THE 48 HOURS.
WIND WILL BE BREEZY SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND STRONGER ALL DAY
MON. OTHERWISE, WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY DUE TO SLOPE-
VALLEY WIND EFFECT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, EASTERN IDAHO WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK TROUGHING AND AN OPEN LOW MOVES SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON TUESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL INCREASE THE TROUGHING OVER OUR
AREA, IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG OF AN IMPACT AS IF IT WERE A
DEEP, CLOSED LOW LIKE WHAT MODELS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING A FEW DAYS
AGO. THAT MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING, BUT NOW IT APPEARS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY, OUR COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK, AND THEN BEGIN WARMING. MANY WILL BE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 80S CREEP BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AS SOON AS THURSDAY. IT WON'T BE COMPLETELY DRY DURING THE
WEEK, BUT INSTEAD OF SOME WIDESPREAD, STEADY SHOWERS, IT NOW APPEARS
WE WILL JUST SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF QUICK-MOVING, WEAK SHORTWAVES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MEAN WE KEEP THE ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM
AROUND, BUT IT MAINLY STAYS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
OVERALL, QPF IN THE VALLEYS NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW 0.05" AND ONLY
0.15 TO 0.25" UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. EACH AFTERNOON SEES AN UPTICK IN
WINDS, BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK PARTICULARLY BREEZY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HOT
TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 10
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY BUT THAT'LL BE ABOUT THE MOST
IMPACTFUL THING TO AVIATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH ISN'T
MUCH. THAT BEING SAID, VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE
70S/80S/90S. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY WITH RECORD
WARMTH EXPECTED. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS/20S EACH DAY GIVEN
A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO MONDAY, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AND GUSTY
WINDS. OUR LATEST FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP ABOUT 20 DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S/90S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DROPPING TO THE 60S/70S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HELP KEEP DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING EACH DAY AHEAD OF DRIER
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WEST TO EAST.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MESSICK
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...MACKAY
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