238
FXUS65 KPIH 311122
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
522 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE EXPECTED TODAY.
- COOLING TREND STARTS SUNDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT.
- SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 122 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST TODAY AND WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO REGION. IT WILL BE VERY WARM TODAY
WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. MOUNTAIN HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND 40S MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE
WARM AGAIN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS AND 80S
VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ON SHORE FROM THE PACIFIC
SUNDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AS WELL WITH WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK COOLER (KICKING OFF WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY JUNE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SLOWLY
TRENDING WARMER WITH SOME 80S RETURNING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY ONWARD), AS WELL AS LESS IMPACTFUL IN
TERMS OF WIND AND PRECIPITATION. THE ENTIRE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED
BY BROAD/LONGWAVE TROUGHING WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PUSHING THROUGH, BUT THESE WILL LARGELY JUST SUPPORT CHANCES OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED IN SOME OF
OUR MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER CORRIDOR. REGIONALLY THE
BEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, EASTERN
HIGHLANDS, AND UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. OTHERWISE, MONDAY LOOKS A BIT
BREEZY IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY INTO THE RAFT RIVER REGION, AND
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK APPEAR LIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD ON TODAY, SUPPORTING HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN DRY, MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY, HOT, VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS. NO CONCERNS FOR AVIATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AT KBYI PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUNDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO BREEZIER CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE IN MOUNTAIN AREAS (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
KSUN AND KIDA), POTENTIAL MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO A FEW TERMINALS TO
EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE PROB30 -TSRA OR VCTS IN THE TAFS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z/3PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST
HREF CAMS. STRONG, GUSTY, ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT/OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
WILL HAVE A HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY WITH SOME MINIMUM HUMIDITY
BELOW 15 PERCENT IN ZONES 475 AND 476 AND 425 AND 427. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES 475, 476 AND 411. OTHER
ZONES WILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY
WILL RISE A BIT SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY WILL BE
BREEZY IN ZONES 425 AND 419 WITH 10 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...KSMITH
AVIATION...KSMITH
FIRE WEATHER...GK
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