651
FXUS65 KPIH 010437
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1037 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
- COOLING TREND TO AFTERNOON HIGHS STARTS SUNDAY, CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A DRY AND QUIET EVENING TONIGHT WILL START TO SEE CONDITIONS
START TO CHANGE DURING THE DAY SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWEEPS THROUGH ON MON. INCOMING CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY DO HAVE
AN IMPACT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
CONTINUE UNDER A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FROM SPC. IT WILL MAINLY
BE SHOWERS FOR MON, THEN FOR TUE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS AS COLDER UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES IN. THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CA-MEXICO COAST HAS SOME MOISTURE, BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE HEADED IN A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION THAN
NORTHERLY, SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, WITH FEW
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 0.10 OF AN INCH IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES START A COOLING TREND AFTER THE SAT NEAR-RECORDS.
CLOUD COVER AND THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
REASON FOR THIS, AS THE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH ON MON.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL MON, AND BY TUE SHOULD SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S IN LOCATIONS LIKE THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY COOL FROM
TONIGHT TO SUN NIGHT, THEN COOL 6 TO 12 DEG F FROM SUN NIGHT TO
MON NIGHT.
WIND WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES STARTING MID-MORNING
SUN, PEAKING DURING THE LATE EVENING ON SUN NIGHT. WIND SHOULD
STAY UNDER LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE AMERICAN FALLS
RESERVOIR UNTIL AFTER DARK, WHEN IT WILL MARGINALLY EXCEED THE
17KT THRESHOLD. WIND WILL DECREASE FOR MON AND TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
EASTERN IDAHO AND IT WILL HELP KEEP AROUND SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS GENERAL TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH, WHICH WILL KEEP AROUND THE ISOLATED
STORM CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
EAST. IN THIS PATTERN, IT WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON, TOO, WITH
GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY WITH MANY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ON WEDNESDAY, MID AND UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY, AND LOW TO MID 80S BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE MID 80S ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY VOID OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH VFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW CLOSER TO 15 KTS ALONG WITH
HIGHER GUSTS, ESPECIALLY AT KPIH AND KIDA. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES LOOK CLOSER TO
MONTANA BUT CAN'T RULE SOMETHING DEVELOPING AROUND KIDA AND
KDIJ AND MAYBE KPIH. ADDED SOME VCSH/TS AT THOSE TERMINALS
ACCORDINGLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND WITH THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
WILL HAVE A HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY WITH SOME MINIMUM HUMIDITY
BELOW 15 PERCENT IN ZONES 475 AND 476 AND 425 AND 427. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
WELL WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES 475, 476 AND 411. OTHER
ZONES WILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY
WILL RISE A BIT SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY WILL BE
BREEZY IN ZONES 425 AND 419 WITH 10 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MESSICK
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...GK
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