170
FXUS65 KPIH 291950
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
PEAKING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S IN THE VALLEYS.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON CU AS A RIDGE AXIS OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PACNW. UNDER THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 70S/80S CLIMBING TO THE 80S/90S
ON MONDAY OR ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES WARMER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY COURTESY OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. CAMS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOW A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SOME
DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE SOUTH HILLS AND ALBION
MOUNTAIN WEST ALONG THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER. GIVEN 4/5 CAMS IN
THE HREF ENSEMBLE SUITE HIGHLIGHT THIS, HAVE ADDED THE MENTION
IN FOR MONDAY EVENING IN OUR LATEST FORECAST FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
OUTSIDE OF THIS ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, VERY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AS A RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY, THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S IN THE
VALLEYS. THERE WILL ALSO EXIST A 10-30% CHANCE OF REACHING THE
LOW 100S ACROSS OUR LOWEST ELEVATIONS BELOW ABOUT 5000-5500
FEET. RIGHT NOW OUR CURRENT FORECAST STAYS BELOW THE CENTURY
MARK BUT EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR ANY
NECESSARY HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT AS OF NOW, OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 50S/60S CONTINUE TO KEEP THE OVERALL HEAT RISK LIMITED.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, TURNING THE UPPER FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER WHILE LOWERING TEMPERATURES A BIT. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY STARTING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THAT WILL
PEAK IN COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MORE UNSETTLED
TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER THIS WEEK (THU-SAT)
WITH SOME PLACEMENT/TIMING DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS,
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO STICK AROUND AS WE MOVE
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW070-100 MAINLY OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND OR
BELOW 10KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/TERRAIN DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THE TREND INTO MID WEEK WILL BE WARM AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
WIDESPREAD RANGE IN THE TEENS, DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. WINDS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY HEADED INTO TUESDAY AS SOME MOISTURE RETURNS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MACKAY
LONG TERM...MACKAY
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...DMH
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