786
FXUS65 KPIH 080746
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
146 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR LATE
WEEK.
- POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR WIND AND HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
IDAHO TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB HIGHER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S BOTH DAYS. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WORKING OVER THE
RIDGE. AS IT DOES SO, EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE CAPPED BY THE
RIDGE. THESE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE
STORMS WORKING INTO THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ON WEDNESDAY, A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MAGIC VALLEY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF EAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING FOR A TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH EAST IDAHO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025
AS A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST INTO WYOMING THURSDAY
MORNING, BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT EAST AS DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD IN OUT OF THE WEST. A
SECONDARY TROUGH WORKING EAST THROUGH MONTANA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG MONTANA DIVIDE DOWN INTO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COURTESY OF THAT TROUGH
PASSAGE, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AGAIN ON THURSDAY, PEAKING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-45
MPH. BEHIND THAT EXITING SYSTEM, DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
REGIONWIDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS WARMER EACH DAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WILL HELP TRANSITION WINDS FROM THEIR TYPICAL
S/SW/W DIRECTION TO CARRYING A N/NE COMPONENT, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR FRIDAY IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THURSDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO APPROACH LOW-END CRITERIA FOR A N/NE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR WHICH WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S IN THE VALLEYS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY
INTO THE 80S/90S STARTING THIS WEEKEND. EARLY INDICATIONS IN
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO IN A ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, ALLOWING FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 858 PM
MDT MON JUL 7 2025
WE EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BUT LOOK FOR VFR WEATHER. AT SUN, SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH THRESHOLDS TO IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC BEFORE
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THE MOMENT, WE
COULD SEE SOME VIRGA BUT LITTLE TO NO RAIN. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE OF A DRY STORM (10-20% AT BEST)IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, BUT LIKELY WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AIRPORT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS A H5 RIDGE
AXIS WORKS OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO, SUPPORTING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING NORTHEAST TODAY
WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/VIRGA AND OR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN,
WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON RHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH, TURNING CRITICAL FOR WEDNESDAY AS
STRONGER WINDS BUILD IN ALONG A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25-40 MPH. AS A RESULT, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM 1500-2100 MDT WEDNESDAY FOR IDAHO FWZ 410, 413, 425, AND 427,
WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN
THE LATEST FORECAST SUPPORTING THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AS THAT MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A 10-20% CHANCE OF
VIRGA/SHOWERS AND A MIX OF WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
REGIONWIDE.
A SECONDARY TROUGH WORKING EAST THROUGH MONTANA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG MONTANA DIVIDE DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THAT EXITING SYSTEM, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN REGIONWIDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS TEMPERATURE TRENDS WARMER EACH DAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL HELP TRANSITION WINDS FROM THEIR TYPICAL S/SW/W
DIRECTION TO CARRYING A N/NE COMPONENT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER
FOR FRIDAY IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S IN
THE VALLEYS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE 80S/90S STARTING THIS
WEEKEND. EARLY INDICATIONS IN ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPS SOUTHEAST IDAHO IN A ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN,
ALLOWING FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR IDZ410-413-425-427.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...MACKAY
AVIATION...KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...MACKAY
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