678
FXUS65 KPIH 120436
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1036 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WEAK SYSTEMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRING BREEZY WINDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
QUIET DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBOUND SATURDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO NUDGE
UPWARDS SLIGHTLY. OVERALL WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT, BUT
BRIEFLY BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. MODELS INDICATE PRESENCE OF A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON BUILD UPS MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NAM DEVELOPS WEAK PRECIPITATION FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR SUN VALLEY, MUCH WHERE CURRENT BUILD-UPS
ARE OCCURRING. HIRES-FV3 ALSO SIMILAR. MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH MONTANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EAST IDAHO ON THE DRY SIDE
OF THIS FEATURE MONDAY, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRE
CONCERNS. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
FEATURE SAGS SOUTH TOWARD EAST IDAHO, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS
BY TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND SPEED OF
THIS SYSTEM, SO THERE IS AN EXPECTATION OF FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS, BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
POSITIONING OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH ALONG OR OFF THE COAST HEADED
INTO THE WEEKEND. NBM MAINTAINS ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 90S
FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS A WEAK WAVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT WILL SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL
INCREASE WINDS EACH DAY AND BRING ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTM
CHANCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE IDA AND DIJ. EXPECT
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS FOR
KIDA AND KPIH. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS (FEW070) MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE HRRR MODEL IS
SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR OUR
NORTHEASTERN TAFS (IDA AND DIJ) AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
AS HIGH PRESSURE INTENSIFIES FOR THE WEEKEND, EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ON FRI AFTERNOON WAS ACTUALLY
SOMEWHAT HIGH FOR THE TIME OF YEAR, BUT SHOULD BY SUN DRY OUT TO
BELOW 15 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 5500FT ELEVATION IN THE
VALLEYS AND HIGHLANDS AND 4500FT ELEVATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
AS LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT--EVEN THE TRANSPORT WIND. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE FROM DAY TO DAY OVER THIS WEEKEND, BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS STARTS TO CHANGE MON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ON
MON, THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE ID-MT BORDER REGION, THEN BY TUE
THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER, CREATING MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIKELY ONLY THE TWIN FALLS DISTRICT
AND THE SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH NF ESCAPING THE THREAT.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...MESSICK
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