875
FXUS65 KPIH 170000
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
600 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST IDAHO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2025
WEAKLY NORTHWEST/ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER EAST IDAHO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY, GRADUALLY TURNING MORE WESTERLY INTO
THURSDAY. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY TODAY, WARMING ONSET AGAIN
THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS RETURN TO LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHERN UT/NV MAY BE ABLE TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ID
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BLEND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS, SO HAVE
ADDED WEAK POP BELOW 15%, WITHHOLDING MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS
TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2025
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE PACNW SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO SHIFT NORTH INTO EAST
IDAHO FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST BY SUNDAY, AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S OR 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS, AND WINDS WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KTS, FOR MUCH OF THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON CLOSER TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN TO THE AREA AROUND KBYI AND KPIH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2025
EXPECT ZONAL FLOW UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON WHEN A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT WARMING AND DRYING ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND WIND AS UPPER LEVEL WIND INCREASES. ON
FRI, THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE INCREASING
INSTABILITY, APPROACHING RATHER HIGH LEVELS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
EXCEPT IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 411. THE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO MEAN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND STAY
UNDER THE 25 PERCENT COVERAGE THRESHOLD FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
WIND WILL CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY AND KEEPS THE HUMIDITY AND WIND
GUST THRESHOLDS VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE WIND GUST THRESHOLD IS MORE LIKELY TO BE REACHED. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. RIGHT NOW, THE
HUMIDITY IN THE AIR IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN CASE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT TO MORE
NORMAL MEASUREMENTS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...13
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