648
FXUS65 KPIH 181017
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
417 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF EAST IDAHO WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT.
- NEAR CRITICAL WINDS AND HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 133 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA. WE HAD SOME LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
YESTERDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN NORTH TO THE
MONTANA BORDER. THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT ARRIVED THURSDAY NIGHT
RESULTED IN A FEW GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. SO IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT A FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND SMALL HAIL. DCAPE VALUES
ARE SITTING IN THE 1000-1200 J/KG AREA, WHICH SOLIDLY SUPPORT GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SITTING AROUND 0.75
INCHES, SO EXPECT A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. AREAS CAUGHT DIRECTLY UNDER A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM COULD
PICK UP A QUICK 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS
THAN 0.10 INCHES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND STORMS AROUND,
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT
HIGHS AROUND 90 FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR THE MOUNTAIN/HIGHLAND COMMUNITIES.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT WITH NO LARGE SCALE
MECHANISMS IN PLACE, COVERAGE LOOKS MUCH LESS. EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
MUCH COOLER, STILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE PLAIN WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAIN/HIGHLAND COMMUNITIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
WEATHER LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THAT TROUGH MAY NEVER
REALLY GET HERE. WITH THAT SAID, WE MAY HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROUGH. IF OUR HUMIDITY VALUES FALL ENOUGH, THIS COULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY INVOLVE THUNDERSTORMS. THINK STORMS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT PIH, IDA AND DIJ BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. STORMS
COULD POSSIBLY FIRE OFF AS FAR WEST AS SUN, BUT THINK STORMS WILL
LIKELY FIRE ON RIDGES EAST OF SUN AND PROPAGATE INTO THE SNAKE
PLAIN. STORMS AROUND BYI LOOKS UNLIKELY TODAY, MOST LIKELY STAYING
IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF BYI. MODELS SHOW IMPACTS AT PIH, IDA AND DIJ
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY AFTER 21Z. AS STORMS PASS THROUGH,
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY AND CONFIDENCE IN WIND
DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS AT THESE THREE TAF SITES IS VERY LOW AFTER 21Z
UNTIL AROUND 03Z WHEN THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
413 AND 427 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50
MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS 476, 410 AND 411.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AFFECTING 413 AND EASTERN PARTS OF 427. EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES, COULD RESULT IN RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR IDZ413-427.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13
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