430
FXUS65 KPIH 190735
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
135 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR UPPER SNAKE PLAIN FOR CRITICAL WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON.
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY WEAK AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ONLY PLACE
WHERE WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED STORM IS ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENSEMBLES CAN'T EVEN AGREE ON THAT, AS A RESULT
THE BLENDS HAVE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. TEMPS ARE A TOUCH COOLER
TODAY. WE HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT BUT BETTER SHOT AT VERIFYING THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON AMERICAN FALLS, SO WE'LL BE ISSUING THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ON SUNDAY, STILL LOOKING AT BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE SO MUCH.
AT THIS POINT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS LOOKING UNLIKELY.
TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK UP JUST A BIT, BUT STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY SHOWERS NEAR ISLAND PARK, MOST OF THE REGION LOOKS DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
MOVING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MODELS STILL SHOW THAT IT WILL NEVER QUITE REACH EAST
IDAHO, PERHAPS MAKING IT AS FAR AS NORTHERN CUSTER AND LEMHI
COUNTIES. THOSE AREAS COULD POSSIBLY SEE A STRAY SHOWER. OTHERWISE,
REST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO MID TO LATE WEEK, MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DEVELOPING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST IDAHO TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION. POTENTIALLY WE COULD SEE TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALSO, THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE SPLINTERING FROM THE LOW AND WORKING INTO
THE REGION. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
AREA, THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS NORTH OF IDA
CURRENTLY. EXPECT OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KTS LIKELY FOR ALL TAF SITES AS WEAK, DRY TROUGH
MOVES OVER OUR AREA. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY EARLY EVENING
TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 410 WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF FUELS, WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANY FIRES TO SPREAD
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. ZONE 475 IS CLOSE AS WELL, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CRITERIA FOR WIND AND HUMIDITY IS AT MOST IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE ZONE AND IN REALITY FOR THE CRATERS AREA. CONDITIONS FOR
HUMIDITY AND WINDS EXIST IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL BUT FUELS
AREN'T QUITE READY THERE.
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. THE WINDS MAY BE
JUST A TOUCH LOWER AND THE HUMIDITY COULD BE A TOUCH HIGHER. SO 410
WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT MAY FALL JUST SHY. LOOKS
LIKE BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN
AT LEAST MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SNAKE PLAIN.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ410.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...13
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