413
FXUS65 KPIH 191702
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1102 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION AND SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR UPPER SNAKE PLAIN FOR CRITICAL WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON.
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
WE DID ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM AROUND MACKAY THROUGH LONEPINE, AND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WE SHOULDN'T SEE MUCH RAIN AS BETTER
MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED EAST, BUT THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF
GUSTS 35-45 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR HAIR BY EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPS ARE A TOUCH COOLER TODAY. WE HAVE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT
BUT BETTER SHOT AT VERIFYING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON AMERICAN
FALLS, SO WE'LL BE ISSUING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
ON SUNDAY, STILL LOOKING AT BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE SO MUCH.
AT THIS POINT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS LOOKING UNLIKELY.
TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK UP JUST A BIT, BUT STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY SHOWERS NEAR ISLAND PARK, MOST OF THE REGION LOOKS DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
MOVING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MODELS STILL SHOW THAT IT WILL NEVER QUITE REACH EAST
IDAHO, PERHAPS MAKING IT AS FAR AS NORTHERN CUSTER AND LEMHI
COUNTIES. THOSE AREAS COULD POSSIBLY SEE A STRAY SHOWER. OTHERWISE,
REST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO MID TO LATE WEEK, MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DEVELOPING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST IDAHO TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION. POTENTIALLY WE COULD SEE TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALSO, THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE SPLINTERING FROM THE LOW AND WORKING INTO
THE REGION. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY INVOLVE WINDS. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT IDA AND PIH. THINK THAT
SUN MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AN UPVALLEY WIND BUT WILL TURN TO MORE OF
A GUSTY CROSSWIND BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD RELAX BY 04Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACT COULD BE AT DIJ. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION AT
THE MOMENT. THAT MAY NEEDED TO BE UPDATED AS STORMS DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 410 WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF FUELS, WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANY FIRES TO SPREAD
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. ZONE 475 IS CLOSE AS WELL, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CRITERIA FOR WIND AND HUMIDITY IS AT MOST IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE ZONE AND IN REALITY FOR THE CRATERS AREA. CONDITIONS FOR
HUMIDITY AND WINDS EXIST IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL BUT FUELS
AREN'T QUITE READY THERE.
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. THE WINDS MAY BE
JUST A TOUCH LOWER AND THE HUMIDITY COULD BE A TOUCH HIGHER. SO 410
WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT MAY FALL JUST SHY. LOOKS
LIKE BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN
AT LEAST MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SNAKE PLAIN.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ410.
SHORT TERM...KEYES
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...13
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