043
FXUS65 KPIH 191936
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
136 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN SUNDAY AND BEYOND
- POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON IN THE WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS FORECAST DUE TO THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO. WE ARE HITTING THE LOW END
OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY TERRITORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS, AND WILL
LEAVE THAT IN PLACE THROUGH 8PM. AS THE FRONT IS CROSSING THE
AREA, MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE AND WITH IT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND THERE
IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER 35 MPH, MAYBE REACHING 45
MPH. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY, WE ARE
LOOKING AT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN
SOME WIND FROM WELL OFF THE SURFACE, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
COMMON. SOME GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
UPPER END OF THE SNAKE PLAIN, CRATERS/INL, AND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL BE PUSHING WIND ADVISORY OVER THE ARCO DESERT
TOMORROW, BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING WITH THAT RIGHT NOW. THAT
COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH. WE DO HAVE SOME
ISOLATED DRY STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER, BUT THAT
COULD BE A MORE WIDESPREAD ISSUE BASED ON WHAT THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING. IT IS POSSIBLE THEY ARE OVERDOING
THINGS AND WE WON'T SEE ANYTHING BUT SOME AFTERNOON VIRGA
ISSUES, BUT WE MAY END UP WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER A GOOD CHUNK
OF EASTERN IDAHO AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE DAY. MONDAY COULD BE
A SIMILAR DAY WEATHER-WISE. RIGHT NOW, OUR BLEND OF MODELS HAVE
A LITTLE LESS WIND...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT WE NEED
TO PUSH THAT HIGHER IF THAT TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CLOSER TO
THE MONTANA BORDER. HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE TRYING TO PAINT ISOLATED STORMS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. WE MAY NEED TO TREND THAT PART OF THE FORECAST HIGHER IF
THOSE TRENDS PERSIST. KEYES
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
AN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
BULK OF MOISTURE REMAINING IN NORTHERN IDAHO. OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BY
MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. LONG-RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE
SIGNALS LIFTING INTO IDAHO IN SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND A LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA
COAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY INVOLVE WINDS. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT IDA AND PIH. THINK THAT
SUN MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP AN UPVALLEY WIND BUT WILL TURN TO MORE OF
A GUSTY CROSSWIND BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD RELAX BY 04Z THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACT COULD BE AT DIJ. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION AT
THE MOMENT. THAT MAY NEEDED TO BE UPDATED AS STORMS DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MDT FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 410 DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF ZONE 425 IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OBSERVE NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL WINDS AND RH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FIRE WEATHER ZONES
410, 411, 413, AND 476 ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
AGAIN TOMORROW, AS WELL AS AREAS FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO MINIMUM RH
VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS RANGING 25 TO 35 MPH. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN PRE-COORDINATED FOR SUNDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 413,
425, AND 427, WHICH WILL BE ISSUED FOLLOWING THE EXPIRATION OF THE
CURRENT RFW. BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR BEING RH VALUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE
WILL TAKE ISSUANCE ONE DAY AT A TIME, ASSESS TRENDS, AND CONTACT
FIRE PARTNERS AGAIN TOMORROW TO COORDINATE ANY POTENTIAL
HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ410.
SHORT TERM...KEYES
LONG TERM...CROPP
AVIATION...KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...CROPP
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