136
FXUS65 KPIH 210127
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
727 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
- POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS
- CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
AS EXPECTED, WE ARE SEEING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE MONTANA BORDER. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT, WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS EVENING AND VIRGA/SPRINKLES TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WITH STORMS ALONG THE
BORDER, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...ANYTHING THAT FORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE STRONGER GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER AND LOWER THAN WE
WERE PREVIOUSLY THINKING. THAT SAID, GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH SHOULD
BE QUITE COMMON...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN, CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAVA BEDS/CRATERS OF THE MOON
AREA. WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS NEEDED TO TRIGGER
ANY TYPE OF WIND-RELATED HEADLINE. HEADING INTO TOMORROW, IT
WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THOSE
SITUATIONS. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A
10-30% CHANCE OF OUTFLOW GUSTS OVER 35 MPH IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, RAMPING UP TO 50-70% ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN
OUR HIGHER RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST (HREF) DATA IS PUSHING
55 MPH SO FAR. FOR TUESDAY, YOU GUESSED IT...MORE WIND AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MONTANA BORDER AGAIN. WE DO
COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES TO START OUT THIS WEEK, VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF 90S FOR HIGHS IS ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
AN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
BULK OF MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP JUST BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BY MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLES
SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
LONG-RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK MOISTURE SIGNALS WORKING INTO IDAHO
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND A
LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. CURRENTLY ONLY FORECASTING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY GENERALLY ALONG OUR BORDERS, BUT THIS COULD CHANCE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 720 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DROP OFF CURRENTLY. EXPECT OVERALL LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25KTS PICK UP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MOVES CLOSER
TO IDAHO. WITH MOISTURE INSTABILITY INCREASING THERE IS A CHANCE
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR
BYI. WILL LIKELY ADD PROB30 GROUPS FOR PIH, IDA AND DIJ FOR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM MDT FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 413, 425, AND 427 DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LIMITING FACTOR BEING RH VALUES AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY GRADUALLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 410, 413, AND A PORTION OF 427, WHERE MINIMUM RH WILL RANGE
LESS THAN 20% AND WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE 30 TO 40 MPH. ISOLATED
STORMS AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WILL ALSO INCREASE FIRE DANGER AS STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH OUTFLOWS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ410-413-
425-427.
SHORT TERM...KEYES
LONG TERM...CROPP
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...CROPP
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