769
FXUS65 KPIH 211037
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
437 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
- POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS
- CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER
IN PLACES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. ACROSS OUR CORNER OF THE GEM
STATE HOWEVER, CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR THE
TIME BEING ALTHOUGH THESE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. THINGS LOOK TO BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN TODAY BUT
LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS FOR ANY LAKE WIND/WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS LOOK HIGHEST ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT AND UP
TOWARDS THE LEMHI HIGHLANDS WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35. AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT
GIVEN THE WINDS, WE ARE CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
BUT FOR NOW, IT'S A BIT BORDERLINE FOR ANY RED FLAGS...SEE FIRE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. HI-RES CAMS DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE OF THE DRY VARIETY WHICH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS LATER TODAY WITH OUTFLOWS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. NOT MUCH CHANGES AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER AS THE U/L TROUGH WEAKENS A BIT
WHILE PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE AND MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
LOCAL WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM LATER IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE AS A POTENT RIDGE LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WE'LL LIKELY RESIDE ON THE FAR WESTERN
EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE. U/L FLOW WILL REMAIN SW FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD SO WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN AT TIMES
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT LEAST ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED,
LIKELY HIGH-ELEVATION, POPS BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL
OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF JULY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED AS A SYSTEM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
MOVES A BIT CLOSER TO IDAHO. WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASING THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIKELY WON'T SEE ANY
PRECIP WITH THESE BUT SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE CERTAINLY
PROBABLE. MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR BYI, PIH,
IDA AND DIJ FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
TUESDAY AM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 413, AND A PORTION OF 427, WHERE
MINIMUM RH WILL RANGE LESS THAN 20% AND WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE 30 TO
40 MPH. CERTAINLY SUSPECT A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THESE ZONES WILL
TECHNICALLY REACH CRITERIA BUT NOT SURE IF WE'LL MEET THE 3 HR
DURATION. IT'S CERTAINLY CLOSE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE, HAVE
HELD OFF FOR NOW BUT A SHORT-FUSED RED FLAG MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
MORNING IF SOMETHING CHANGES. ISOLATED STORMS AREAWIDE ON MONDAY
WILL ALSO INCREASE FIRE DANGER AS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 40 MPH OUTFLOWS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WITH
THE STRONGEST OF OUTFLOWS. TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE JUST A TOUCH LIGHTER WITH RHS A TOUCH HIGHER
AS WELL. WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY,
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCKAUGHAN
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