775
FXUS65 KPIH 211546
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
946 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
- POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS
- CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
BASED ON SATELLITE, RADAR, AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
TRENDS...WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECASTS (HREF) HAVE WIDESPREAD 30-70%
POTENTIAL OF OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 35 MPH WITH A 10% BULLSEYE NEAR
60 MPH ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. IN OTHER WORDS, EXPECT A LOT OF
WIND WITH STORMS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. COVERAGE
OVERALL WILL BE ISOLATED EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE MONTANA BORDER AND
A FEW SPOTS ELSEWHERE WHERE COVERAGE REACHES SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, THINGS LOOK TO BE BREEZY OUTSIDE OF STORM ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...BUT LOOK TO STAY JUST BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS FOR ANY
LAKE WIND/WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS LOOK HIGHEST ACROSS THE
ARCO DESERT AND UP TOWARDS THE LEMHI HIGHLANDS WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 35. AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT GIVEN THE WINDS, WE ARE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT FOR NOW, IT'S A BIT
BORDERLINE FOR ANY RED FLAGS...SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. NOT MUCH CHANGES AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
WINDS MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER AS THE U/L TROUGH WEAKENS A BIT WHILE
PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE AND MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
LOCAL WEATHER. TEMPS WILL WARM LATER IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE AS A POTENT RIDGE LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WE'LL LIKELY RESIDE ON THE FAR WESTERN
EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE. U/L FLOW WILL REMAIN SW FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD SO WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN AT TIMES
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT LEAST ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED,
LIKELY HIGH-ELEVATION, POPS BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL
OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF JULY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 437 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED AS A SYSTEM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
MOVES A BIT CLOSER TO IDAHO. WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASING THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIKELY WON'T SEE ANY
PRECIP WITH THESE BUT SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE CERTAINLY
PROBABLE. MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR BYI, PIH,
IDA AND DIJ FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
TUESDAY AM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
BASED ON SATELLITE, RADAR, AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
TRENDS...WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECASTS (HREF) HAVE WIDESPREAD 30-70%
POTENTIAL OF OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 35 MPH WITH A 10% BULLSEYE NEAR
60 MPH ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. IN OTHER WORDS, EXPECT A LOT OF
WIND WITH STORMS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. COVERAGE
OVERALL WILL BE ISOLATED EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE MONTANA BORDER AND
A FEW SPOTS ELSEWHERE WHERE COVERAGE REACHES SCATTERED.
OTHERWISE, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 413, AND
A PORTION OF 427, WHERE MINIMUM RH WILL RANGE LESS THAN 20% AND
WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE 30 TO 40 MPH. CERTAINLY SUSPECT A FEW
SPOTS WITHIN THESE ZONES WILL TECHNICALLY REACH CRITERIA BUT NOT
SURE IF WE'LL MEET THE 3 HR DURATION. IT'S CERTAINLY CLOSE.
TUESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE JUST
A TOUCH LIGHTER WITH RHS A TOUCH HIGHER AS WELL. WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY, SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KEYES
LONG TERM...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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