857
FXUS65 KPIH 211904
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
104 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
- POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS
- CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THROUGH THIS EVENING,
THERE IS A 20-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WITH STILL SOME
POTENTIAL A FEW GUSTS WITH STORMS NEAR 60 MPH. THE CHANCE OF
OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 35 MPH DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY TOMORROW, BUT
STILL A 30% CHANCE OR LESS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN PRODUCING STORMS, BUT WE'RE ONLY STILL SEEING A 15-25%
CHANCE OF AMOUNTS OVER 0.10" AND THAT IS MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, IT WILL BE BREEZY AS
WELL. TODAY, GUSTS OF 20-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTS
TOMORROW TOPPING OUT IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
BEGINNING MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLES SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
NORTHERN CA COAST. LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK
MOISTURE SIGNALS LIFTING INTO IDAHO IN SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. BY THIS TIME, 500MB ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS START TO DIFFER A BIT
REGARDING HOW LONG THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. THE NATIONAL BLEND POP FORECAST GENERALLY INCLUDES DAILY
CHANCES UP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT ALONG THE PERIMETER OF OUR CWA.
ASIDE FROM WHAT LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES INITIALLY TO RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS AND REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO RANGE LIGHT TO BREEZY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED AS A SYSTEM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
MOVES A BIT CLOSER TO IDAHO. WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASING THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIKELY WON'T SEE ANY
PRECIP WITH THESE BUT SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE CERTAINLY
PROBABLE. MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR BYI, PIH,
IDA AND DIJ FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
TUESDAY AM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 413, AND POTENTIALLY A PORTION OF 427
DUE TO NEAR CRITICAL RH AND CRITICAL WINDS. MINIMUM RH OBS ARE
ALREADY AS LOW AS 13 TO 17 PERCENT IN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE
413 THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT AREAS TO MEET CRITICAL CRITERIA AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY, BUT HUMIDITY WILL TREND HIGHER AS
MOISTURE INCREASES COURTESY OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. SYNOPTIC WIND
GUSTS WILL RANGE 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS
AREAWIDE TODAY WILL ALSO INCREASE FIRE DANGER AS STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH OUTFLOWS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FWZ 410 WHERE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER 50
MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY
STABLE HEADING INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. RH WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY
BUT TREND DRIER AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KEYES
LONG TERM...CROPP
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...CROPP
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