102
FXUS65 KPIH 220742
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
142 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED, GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND
UPWARDS STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN IDAHO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. IN FACT, STILL SEEING SOME RARE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SE CORNER
OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE THINGS QUIET DOWN AT LEAST UNTIL THE MID-AFTERNOON
WHEN WE'LL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY WITH VALLEY TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED TODAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO MONDAY BUT STILL A TOUCH
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT WHERE WINDS WILL RUN IN
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HI-RES CAMS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY BUT WITH PWATS
REMAINING IN THE 0.5-0.8 INCH RANGE, THEY'LL LIKELY BE MOSTLY OF THE
DRY VARIETY BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LITTLE RAIN OUT OF A
FEW. NEVERTHELESS, THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING. AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH
THAT HAS BROUGHT A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTH ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RECLAIM ITS THRONE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR UPWARD TREND, ACCORDINGLY, BUT
IT'LL BE A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH HILLS AND UP TOWARDS THE MONTANA DIVIDE BUT
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS BEST SUMMARIZED WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY WITH THINGS CONTINUING TO TREND UPWARDS AS WE GET INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK WILL KEEP SW FLOW ALOFT IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT
INFLUXES OF MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME
ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS COULD REACH IN TO OUR AREA. THIS WOULD
BRING TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN TO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 90S EARLY NEXT
WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ULTIMATELY SHAKE OUT. EITHER WAY,
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED FOR THE NIGHT.
ONLY DIJ HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GETTING CLOSE THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS, WHICH WOULD BRING SLIGHTLY GUSTY WINDS.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM A SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF OUR
AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. THE HREF
MODEL IS SHOWING ALMOST THE SAME PATH FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW THAT HAPPENED TODAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL
START BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW NEAR BYI AND START BY
LATE AFTERNOON NEAR PIH AND AND START NEAR IDA AND DIJ BY EARLY
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CLOSE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OF 30 TO 45 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY, ALTHOUGH STILL BREEZY ACROSS MAINLY
ZONE 410 WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY STABLE HEADING INTO MID TO LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL OF LOCAL WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN. RHS WILL INCREASE ON TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
BUT BEGIN TO TREND DRIER AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY TAKES HOLD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK BLEAK FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD TRANSPIRE OVER THE DAYS AHEAD, CHANCES ARE LOW. THE WEEKEND
LOOKS INCREASINGLY DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A POTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF CRITICAL RHS BUT
WINDS DON'T LOOK TO BE TOO PROBLEMATIC DURING THIS PERIOD BUT IT
WILL CERTAINLY BE HOT AND DRY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...MCKAUGHAN
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...MCKAUGHAN
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