483
FXUS65 KPIH 221923
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
123 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
- WARMING TREND COMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
THE TREND CONTINUES FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE COULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS (MEANING MEASURABLE RAINFALL) ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY STORMS TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL HIGH END FOR GUSTS HITTING
45-50 MPH. IT IS LIKELY THAT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK, IF NOT HIGHER. ALTHOUGH WE HAVEN'T
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VIRGA AND GUSTY WINDS AT NIGHT, THAT IS A
NON-ZERO CHANCE AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT NOTHING STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF WIND-RELATED
HEADLINE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE DAILY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL BLEND POP
FORECAST CONTINUES TO GENERALLY RUN UP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THESE
AREAS AS WEAK MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CLOSED LOW SITUATED ALONG THE NORTHERN CA
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING BY SEVERAL DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK
INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS, WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 80S IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE MONDAY,
WITH VFR WEATHER AND SOME POTENTIAL OF STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE A TOUCH LOWER DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, CLOSER TO 10-15 KTS, AT VALLEY
TERMINALS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF
THESE IMPACTING ANY PARTICULAR AIRFIELD ARE LOW, GUSTY WINDS ARE
AT LEAST POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THEM IF THE PASS CLOSE TO
A TERMINAL. AS SUCH, MAINTAINED PROB30 MENTION AS THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD HAVE UP TO 40KT GUSTS. WE DID LEAVE THAT
OUT FOR SUN, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF STORMS DEVELOP/MOVE CLOSER
TO THE AIRPORT MORE THAN SHOWN RIGHT NOW IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
HUMIDITY IS RUNNING HIGHER TODAY AS A PACNW TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH FORECAST WINDS LIGHTER THAN THAT LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. SLIGHT CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 476 AND 427. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 20 TO 30 MPH AREAWIDE WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
CAPABLE OF 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS. BEGINNING TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AND HUMIDITY WILL TREND LOWER INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY BEGINNING
TOMORROW. AS HUMIDITY BEGINS TO DROP CLOSER TO 15% ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO LATE WEEK, WE WILL HAVE TO ASSESS DAILY WHETHER OR NOT MAXIMUM
GUSTS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR OUR ZONES WHERE FUELS ARE DEEMED CRITICAL.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KEYES
LONG TERM...CROPP
AVIATION...KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...CROPP
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