425
FXUS65 KPIH 140800
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, PEAKING IN COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
STRONGER ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 80S/90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO EASTERN
IDAHO, LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF NEVADA AND UTAH. FOLLOWING ANY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A FOCUS ON THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS, AND ALONG THE MONTANA DIVIDE. THIS IS WHERE
THE HREF MODEL PROBABILITY OF THUNDER SHOWS A 20-70% CHANCE WITH
HIGHEST VALUES SE OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. TWO MAIN CORRIDORS
FOR STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH THE PRIMARY BEING
IN THE SOUTH HILLS EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
ANOTHER UP ALONG THE MONTANA DIVIDE. THIS IS WHERE THE HREF
MODEL PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH SHOWS A 50-
90% CHANCE, WITH A 10% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH
AROUND THE SOUTH HILLS AND ALBION MOUNTAINS. AS EVIDENT BY
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES YESTERDAY THAT
PRODUCED WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH, WE ARE LOOKING AT A
NEAR REPEAT TODAY GIVEN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE,
WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 55 MPH. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 3-6
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL PEAK LATER TODAY AROUND
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-40 MPH. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, BREEZY WINDS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. MORE ON THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
FOR FRIDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT THE
GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A
FOCUS IN THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL COOL ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES TO THE LOW 80S
TO LOW 90S WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, SYNOPTIC WINDS
WILL PEAK AROUND 10-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-40 MPH, STRONGEST IN
THE EASTERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ARCO/MUD LAKE DESERT REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
AROUND RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR A DECENT PORTION OF EASTERN
IDAHO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER OVER OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES
JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON SATURDAY TO
MID AND UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY. IT WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON
SATURDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH FOR MANY, BUT WINDS
LIGHTEN UP ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, SO
THAT MEANS WE BEGIN TO HEAT UP AGAIN. HIGHS JUMP BACK INTO THE
90S FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2025
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE JUST A TOUCH LIGHTER THURSDAY AS
COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SIMILARLY TO TODAY, HREF INDICATES
MAXIMUM GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING 40 KTS WITH
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF 40 TO 50 KT GUSTS. HREF PROBABILITY
OF THUNDER IS 20 TO 30 PERCENT AT KDIJ AND KBYI BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 22Z AND 03Z. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR BOTH TERMINALS
TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE, PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND THEREFORE HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH FOR THIS SAME ROUGH TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR IDAHO FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 410, 411, 413, 427, 475, AND 476 FROM NOON TO 10 PM TODAY.
THE BULK OF THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN
ZONES 413 AND 427 TODAY WHILE THE OTHERS WILL SEE MORE GUSTY
WINDS, LOW RHS, AND ISOLATED STORMS. A COUPLE OF THE CAMS EVEN
HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
IDAHO TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AROUND
20 TO 35 MPH. IN OUR ZONES 422 AND 425 THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE WARNING, IT WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY, BUT WINDS WILL BE A BIT
LIGHTER. SO, WHILE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WON'T TECHNICALLY BE
CRITICAL, IT WILL BE NEAR-CRITICAL. WITH ANY STORMS TODAY, WIND
GUSTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
OUTFLOWS TO BE AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH. FRIDAY WILL BE ALMOST A
REPEAT OF TODAY AND IT WON'T BE UNTIL THE WEEKEND THAT WE START
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SLIGHTLY
BUMP UP OUR MIN RHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. WIND
GUSTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOK JUST A BIT LIGHTER, SO WE WILL
HAVE TO REEVALUATE ANY NEED FOR A RFW ON FRIDAY, BUT MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT
THE LEAST.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ410-411-413-427-475-476.
SHORT TERM...MACKAY
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...CROPP
FIRE WEATHER...AMM
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