696
FXUS65 KPIH 152346
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
546 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY, PEAKING IN COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH STRONGER
ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S, PEAKING NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND INTO THE BEAR LAKE AREA.
WE COULD SEE A HANDFUL FROM MACKAY TO MONIDA AND ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN (ESPECIALLY FROM ANY OUTFLOW COMING FROM THE SOUTH).
THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF WINDS OVER 35 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, SOME GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT,
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WE
DROPPED ANY POTENTIAL FOR THAT TO 15% OR LOWER. FOR SATURDAY, A
LITTLE BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES, BUT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL...JUST AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ACROSS THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS, COVERAGE PUSHES TO SCATTERED
ALONG AND EAST OF I-15 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
TIMEFRAME. ANYWHERE WE SEE STORMS TOMORROW, THERE IS A 30-70%
CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. HIGH END GUSTS ARE PUSHING 50-65
MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. OUTSIDE OF STORMS. GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED. STORMS QUICKLY RACE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW EVENING, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAGGLERS
MAY REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MONTANA
BORDER AT NIGHT. THAT POTENTIAL FOR NOW REMAINS AT 10% OR LESS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT
FRI AUG 15 2025
EAST IDAHO WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO LARGE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED: STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING OFF THE PACNW/BC CANADA COAST. ONE
MORE DAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING MONDAY. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP INDUCE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND,
BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY. THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC NBM ARE AT THE
BOTTOM END OF THE ENSEMBLE RANGE, SO IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE THESE
FORECAST HIGHS RAISE IN THE COMING DAYS. PAST MIDWEEK, THERE IS
POTENTIAL TO START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE WORK NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN, LEADING TO SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
OUTFLOW WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE PRODUCES GUSTS TO OR ABOVE 45 KTS.
THAT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AGAIN TOMORROW WITH A 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE AT KPIH AND KIDA, 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT KBYI,
AND A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE AT KDIJ. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR
THESE FOUR TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 21Z SATURDAY. WITH ONLY A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE AT KSUN, HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST MAXIMUM GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
RANGE 40 TO 50 KTS AGAIN TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS 413 AND 427 REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD TO LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS.
THAT SAID WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MACKAY TO
MONIDA PASS OR ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOW FROM
OTHER STORMS SHIFTS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. THAT TREND CARRIES INTO
TONIGHT, WITH A 15% OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WE DID TAKE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT A STRIKE OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. OUTSIDE OF WHERE STORMS ARE TODAY, WE ARE
SEEING SOME GUSTS 20-30 MPH. WE AREN'T GOING TO EXPAND OUR
WARNINGS TODAY AS ANY WIDESPREAD ISSUES WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS
DOESN'T APPEAR IMMINENT. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE
IS A SMALL UPTICK IN MOISTURE...BUT THAT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
TRANSLATING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ACTUAL RAINFALL. IT APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS UNFORTUNATELY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN
ZONES 475/476 AND ZONE 411. WE SHOULD SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG
AND EAST OF I-15 IN 410 AND 413. ELSEWHERE, COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER
35 MPH, WITH HIGH-END POTENTIAL OF 50-65 MPH ESPECIALLY WHAT
STORMS DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN, OUTSIDE OF
STORMS SOME PLACES MAY SEE GUSTS 25-30 MPH. LATER THIS EVENING
WHEN THE CURRENT ROUND OF WARNINGS IS DROPPED, WE WILL ISSUE A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 411, 413, 475 AND 476 FOR SCATTERED
STORMS AND OUTFLOW WINDS. COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH IN ZONE 410 AT
THE MOMENT. ANY OTHER AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PULL THE TRIGGER. FOR
SUNDAY, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
DON'T LOOK IMPRESSIVE, SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF MOSTLY DRY STORMS
IS FORECAST. THAT WILL MEAN AT LEAST ONE MORE ROUND OF WARNINGS
APPEARS LIKELY. THE WEATHER CALMS DOWN QUITE A BIT, BUT WE TURN
WARMER AND DRY OUT QUICKLY ACROSS OUR AREA.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ413-427.
SHORT TERM...KEYES
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...CROPP
FIRE WEATHER...KEYES
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