665
FXUS65 KPIH 160807
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
207 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2025
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON A FEW RETURNS THIS MORNING, THOUGH THAT
APPEARS TO BE CATCHING SOME OF THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS OUR
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA FOR THIS
WEEKEND THANKS TO A DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AGAIN
TODAY, VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, AND WITH A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, TOO. IT IS MOST
LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THERE STILL ISN'T A TON OF MOISTURE TO RAIN OUT
TODAY, SO THE WETTER STORMS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF. THE HREF IS HIGHLIGHTING A FAIRLY SMALL AREA BETWEEN
POCATELLO AND IDAHO FALLS FOR ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ANY WIND
GUSTS OF 60+ MPH LATER TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY, IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH FOR
MANY. OUR "COOLING" TREND CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT IN THIS
CASE "COOL" IS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIDESPREAD 80S ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AREA. WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ON
SUNDAY, ONLY AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2025
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO UPPER 90S IN THE VALLEYS STARTING TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOUT 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
MEANING OUR LATEST FORECAST COMES WITHIN AROUND 1-4 DEGREES OF DAILY
RECORD HIGHS AT OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES, A SOLUTION SUPPORTED
AMONGST ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHERE AROUND A 5-15% CHANCE EXISTS ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN OF REACHING 100 DEGREES OR WARMER. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
WE REMAIN SITUATED UNDER A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
EARLY INDICATIONS AMONGST ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW OUT
OF THE SW CONUS BUILDING INTO EASTERN IDAHO LATE NEXT WEEK ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE LATEST NBM CONTINUES
TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTION ON THE ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS
WHICH REMAINS THE DRIER OF THE TWO. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL
ULTIMATELY END UP BEING IF WE ARE ABLE TO KEEP AN OVERALL S/SW
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AROUND TO SUPPORT THAT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AXIS LIFTING UP INTO OUR REGION, AS OPPOSED TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACNW. AT THIS
TIME, THE NBM SLOWLY INCREASES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
STARTING THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THAT MONSOON
MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE AT KPIH AND KIDA, 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE AT KBYI, AND A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE AT KDIJ. HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30S FOR THESE FOUR TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 21Z SATURDAY. WITH
ONLY A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE AT KSUN, HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MAXIMUM GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL RANGE 40 TO 50 KTS AGAIN TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2025
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY WINDS,
IN ADDITION TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY AHEAD OF AN IMPROVEMENT
TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 12
PM TO 9 PM MDT FOR IDAHO FWZ 411, 413, 475, AND 476 WHERE BEST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXIST. OUTSIDE OF THESE ZONES,
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING IDAHO FWZ 410 WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
GIVEN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE WITH RHS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE TEENS/20S, STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
REGIONWIDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH,
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL
PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING,
WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/VIRGA POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE VALLEYS WITH SYNOPTIC WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION PEAKING
AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-35 MPH.
FOR SUNDAY, LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE WITH BEST SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THIS TREND, BEST CANDIDATES FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS
DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED IN IDAHO FWZ 411,
413, 422, 427, 475, AND 476 WHICH WILL NEED TO BE COORDINATED ON THE
DAY SHIFT WITH OUR REGIONAL FIRE PARTNERS. STRONGER SHOWER/STORMS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-
60 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL.
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTING MONDAY, HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO EASTERN IDAHO REGIONWIDE WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE WE MAY ULTIMATELY SEE SOME INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND RISING RHS LATER IN THE WEEK DEPENDENT ON
WHERE A MONSOONAL MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP, CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING VERY
DRY FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON RHS EACH DAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. AT THIS TIME, THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A GREAT
DEAL OF AREAL COVERAGE OF AN OVERLAP OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH,
MEANING GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD PEAK AROUND 20-30 MPH, WITH ONLY
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ411-413-475-476.
SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...MACKAY
AVIATION...CROPP
FIRE WEATHER...MACKAY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page