516
FXUS65 KPIH 111723
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1123 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL COOLING TREND STARTS TODAY, WARMING RETURNS MONDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
EARLY MORNING RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT OF UTAH.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, DISSIPATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING THROUGH THEN, WITH THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THE MOST LIKELY REGION TO OBSERVE IT. THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE EVENING, WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BEING THE FAVORED
CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTH HILLS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HREF
INDICATES A 20 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (CHANCES INCREASINGLY HIGHER FURTHER NORTH), A 20
TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO WITH GREATEST CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTHWEST, AND A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN OUR VALLEYS AND 50S AND 60S IN
THE MID- TO HIGH ELEVATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH IDAHO, ALTHOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST AND
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MDT TUE SEP 9 2025
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, TROUGHING LOOKS TO STILL BE IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO. THIS WILL KEEP OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN GOING WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WE MAY BE A BIT DRIER ON SUNDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE MILD ON SATURDAY (DARE I SAY EVEN "COOL"?) WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL HELP US ALL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTER STARTING THE DAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ALSO IN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WE SEE SOME VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS TO HANDLING A TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF
SWINGS A TROUGH THROUGH WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD AND DEVELOPING A LOW IN
NORTHWESTERN MONTANA LATE MONDAY. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS SOME HIGH
ELEVATION PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND IS THE WETTER SOLUTION AS DEVELOPS A DEEPER LOW OVER
OREGON ON MONDAY THAT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH IDAHO ON TUESDAY. BOTH
MODELS AGREE ON DRYING OUT A BIT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW MODELS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA, WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW COMPARED TO THE RELATIVE QUIET OF YESTERDAY. STORMS WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE, BUT HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO
IMPACT DIJ AND BYI. HOWEVER, THAT'S NOT TO SAY A STORM OR OUTFLOW
COULDN'T MAKE IT FARTHER NORTH INTO SUN, PIH, OR EVEN IDA. THE
LATEST HREF PROBABILITY OF THUNDER SHOWS ABOUT A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE AT BYI, DIJ, AND SUN WITH A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE AT PIH
AND IDA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 AT BYI, DIJ, AND SUN THOUGH
DID BRIEFLY CONSIDER REMOVING IT AT SUN AS STORM CONFIDENCE THERE IS
LOWER WITH WHAT HIRES MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING AND WILL KEEP THE
VCSH AT PIH AND IDA, TOO. STORMS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS AROUND 35KTS, BUT WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL BE A BIT
LIGHTER TODAY, ONLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT, BUT MOST STAY DRY UNTIL OUR NEXT ROUND OF
ISOLATED STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
NOT MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS EVENING, MAINLY
LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS IN ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, BUT WON'T BE GETTING MUCH HIGHER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED FOR SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURE AT
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ELEVATIONS COOLING INTO THE 70S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 50S, IT WILL BE HARD TO GET
HUMIDITY TO DRY TO BELOW 15 PERCENT. GUSTY WIND THIS AFTERNOON
IN SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD END EARLY IN THE EVENING AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RETURN THU OR FRI.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CROPP
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...MESSICK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page