068
FXUS65 KPIH 131721
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1121 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUE, MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
- DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 149 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS ALONG OUR BORDERS WITH MT AND
WY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONCLUDE AROUND SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY AFTER. OUTSIDE OF THESE FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA, CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN QUIET AHEAD OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION INITIATING SHORTLY AFTER NOON TODAY.
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEING IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS
30 TO 40 MPH. SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL LARGELY
DIMINISH BY AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TONIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE JUST
A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGHS, RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
IN OUR VALLEYS AND 50S AND 60S IN THE MID TO HIGH ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
ON SUNDAY, A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS IDAHO
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY, THIS RIDGE
WILL BE EXITING EASTERN IDAHO AS AN AREA OF DEEP TROUGHING BEGINS TO
DEVELOP A LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH MANY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOOKING AT THE 48
HOURS FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY MORNING, THE NBM SHOWS ABOUT A
10 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THOSE NUMBERS
INCREASE TO ABOUT A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND EVEN A BIT HIGHER TO AROUND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE UP IN THE ISLAND PARK AREA. WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE A BIT
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, TOO, TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. WE
WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE AREA. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY, BUT THE
WARMER WEATHER MAKES A RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE VERY SIMILAR
ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
STORMS LOOK TO BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON THAN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. SO, WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM MAY PASS NEAR A
TERMINAL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN A DIRECT IMPACT. WILL INCLUDE SOME
VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR DIJ AND SUN, BUT THAT'S ALL FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
BEFORE OUR NEXT ROUND OF CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER EAST IDAHO TODAY, WITH TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST INTO WYOMING FOR SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CARIBOU-TARGHEE NF, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A NEW SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE WEEK FOR MOST. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CROPP
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...DMH
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