618
FXUS65 KPIH 140534
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1134 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUE, MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
- DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AMPLIFIED BUT SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH, WITH AXIS DRAPED ALONG THE
WYOMING BORDER. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW CU FIELD ACROSS MOST
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, BUT WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY
BEGUN ALONG THE WYOMING AND UTAH BORDERS. HIGH-RES MODELS
MAINTAIN MAINLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THESE AREAS, BUT ALSO WEAK
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTS 35-40 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID EVENING. WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO MID-DAY SUNDAY EXPECTED TO KEEP
ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY UNDER RIDGE AXIS, BUT NEXT SHORTWAVE FEATURE
CURRENTLY VISIBLE OFF WA/OR COAST EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE DAY.
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY MAGIC
VALLEY AND SOUTH HILLS. SHOWERS THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO
MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
METEOROLOGICALLY, FALL ARRIVED ON SEPTEMBER FIRST. ASTRONOMICALLY,
IT ARRIVES ON THE 22ND. PRACTICALLY SPEAKING, WE GET A REAL TASTE OF
IT ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES
THROUGH IDAHO. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, THE NBM SHOWS ABOUT A
10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF ON
MONDAY FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THAT INCREASES TO ABOUT A 30 TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON MONDAY, TOO, WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 TO 25 MPH. TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE DRY DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE AREA AND WE BEGIN TO WARM INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S TUESDAY, MID TO UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY, AND
FINALLY REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ON THURSDAY. THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY HEADING OUR
WAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT'S WAY TOO FAR OUT TO GET INTO ANY
SPECIFICS JUST YET, THOUGH IT MAY AT LEAST BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT COOL
DOWN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
FOLLOWING A QUIET NIGHT, MODESTLY BREEZY DIURNAL WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AT MOST TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH-RES CAMS
OFFERING SEVERAL DIFFERENT IDEAS OF WHAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MIGHT LOOK LIKE. THIS CONTINUES TO GRANT US LOW CONFIDENCE
IN ADDING MENTION TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL
AND MODEL AGREEMENT SEEMS HIGHEST AT KSUN STARTING AROUND 22Z/4PM,
THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A PROB30 GROUP. THIS TIMING MATCHES A
POTENTIAL WIND SHIFT FROM SE TO SW THERE AS WELL. ENSEMBLE MAX WIND
GUST SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...WITH
SOME SUPPORT FROM DCAPE AND SHALLOW INVERTED-V PROFILES ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY EXITING UPPER
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A WARM UP OF A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE, BUT THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST IDAHO FIRE DISTRICT DURING THE
AFTERNOON, SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
MONDAY SHOULD ALSO BE COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S OR
LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. BY TUESDAY, A NEW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RETURN TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH SOME MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...01
FIRE WEATHER...DMH
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